Why has DraftKings abandoned their PGA DFS Players?

[Springbok]

It used to be that you could not watch 5 minutes of GolfChannel without seeing a DraftKings commercial.

I guess it worked. I got baited. I started playing. I enjoyed it. For $3, you could enter a lineup with a chance to win $100,000 1st place prize.

Now for the switch.... all of a sudden, 1st place prizes are $10,000. Max entrants has been limited to 38,000. Down from 180,000 entrants.

You could argue.... oh well. I guess not as many people are playing. But that is just it..... the $3 contests are ALWAYS full, and sometimes DAYS ahead of closing.

I wanted to create a 180,000 entrant, $3 contest. However, you can't! There is no option to.

Meanwhile, NFL contest prize money has grown exponentially.

I guess we will have to wait till January when NFL is done, and see if DraftKings comes grovelling back to their PGA base. However, if FanDuel starts offering PGA Tour DFS..... I don't think I would go back.... just because I feel miffed by the bait-n-switch they did.

[Jmikecpa]

Could have to do with the fact that there are lawsuits everywhere regarding both companies.  The AG in NY is going after both and made it very hard for them to do business in the state.  The subscribers in NY were approx. 20% of he total database for Draftkings......that is a huge blow.

 

I think that the days of daily fantasy sports betting are numbered.

[Mr_Theoo]

It could also be because the tournaments that are going on right now aren't big ones in terms of TV viewership so they don't want to offer huge prizes because the casual golf fan won't be watching or playing.

[hckymeyer]

I would also guess it's "off season" and the tournaments are lesser known and don't have as many big names in them.  I know it's a wrap around schedule now, but there is almost no TV coverage and the northern half of the country is putting their clubs away.

 

Combine that with the PGA Tour's stance on daily betting sites ( http://www.golf.com/tour-and-news/pga-tour-bans-players-playing-endorsing-daily-fantasy) and golf is just not on the top of their list right now.  Everybody is betting on Football for the time being.

 

If the site are still around and daily fantasy betting hasn't been banned by next spring I'm sure it will be back.

[BIG STU]

I am still trying to figgure out how it is legal outside of Nevada. There are also Federal Statues on interstate bookmaking. If my old man was still alive he could tell you all about it since he pulled time not once but twice for interstate bookmaking. I guess the lawyers have the loopholes figgured out on it. I imagine when the respective state and federal lawmakers come back from the holidays they may address the issue or maybe not

[DanUsh]

Big Stu their argument across the board is that it is not gambling (a game of chance) but a game of skill.    

[Jmikecpa]

Big Stu their argument across the board is that it is not gambling (a game of chance) but a game of skill.    

While that is true, the argument does not hold water in some states.  NY for instance defines a game of chance loosely as "anyone has the same chance to win, regardless of skill."  The casino that I built in NY is based off of the games of chance model and has VLTs (not slot machines) that have a predetermined outcome that is programmed by a mainframe that is controlled by the state gaming commission.  House banked and player banked table games are not legal and the only "table games" that are allowed are the electronic variety and only baccarat, roulette and craps.  The reason they are allowed is that anyone at the table can essentially place the same wager and have the same odds of winning.  Recently, blackjack and poker were approved in electronic form, but they are classified as games of skill.  The main issue with games of chance in NY is that the sites don't fit that model as there is deemed an element of skill in the drafting of players and that has statistically been proven....or so the state has claimed.  With the game is skill element the sites are offering a form of gambling that is not legal and approved within the NY state.

 

That same argument in Nevada has been used and under the laws in that state it is considered sports wagering which while legal requires licensing.  It would be easy for the companies to just get licensed, however the catch 22 is that they then admit in that jurisdiction they are sports wagering companies and that is a pandora's box for the other 49 states.

 

At the end of the day the main issue is that the companies are making money that is not taxed by the states and in the eyes of the AG in NY it is hurting gaming.  With what I do for a living I can say that this is not a valid argument, but I pay an effective tax rate of 70% at the casino there as an operator (also subject to corp income tax as well) while the sites are only subject to corp taxes.  Once the tax issue is regulated this will all go away and the states will be more apt to negotiate and regulate the daily fantasy sports sites.

 

A few months back both of the sites pitched marketing opportunities to me at my US properties that would have been very nice deals for the company.  I had a feeling that at some point the house of cards would crash since they were getting too big too fast and damn glad I made the right call and passed on both deals.

[Springbok]

Here are just some simple things to consider....

For a 144 person field, there are 11 Billion possible lineups.

Unless ALL your players make the cut, you STAND NO CHANCE of winning 1st place.

So lets say that you accurately predict the top 70 players, i.e. everyone that will make the cut, and only select your lineups from those players.

Well, congrats, because now there are only 131 Million possible lineups.

Sure, not all lineups will fit under the cap. You can reduce the 131 Million lineups to about 111 Million.

Below is analysis data for last weeks contest. I focused only on those players that played 20 or more lineups. The data is only for the top 500, but that is OK, since anything past the top 50 is basically peanuts in prize money. You can see that the guys that did the best are the one that played 61 and 91 cards. You can also easily spot the guys with bad programs that autogenerate lineups. E.g juanwoods... who played the same lineup 3 times. Lucky for him, it won. His program probably chose the same lineup for 3 different players, not realizing they were dupes. Stupid move though because one of those dupes could have been used to select the winning lineup.

What the data below will show is that:

1) You have to be smart about who you pick. I used to believe DFS was truly gambling, but having done it for a while now, have come to the conclusion it is not. There is DEFINITELY skill involved. A LOT of luck too. Probably more luck than skill.

2) If you are going to have a program select your lineups... at least take to time to code the AI properly. See above.

3) You have to play multiple lineups to have the best chance. My early analysis shows you need to play between 60-90 lineups. However your lineups will only ever be as good as your logic for selecting them. You can select 1000 lineups, but if your selection criteria is bad..... that won't do you any good. BTW: To contradict myself.... the players that finished 1-10 all only had 1-3 lineups.

 

4) Winning is pure luck. If you are going to make a go of this, you have to accept the fact that the goal is to make more than you put in every week, not win every week. Winning is a bonus. The "big boys" that own DK and FD bet $140,000 a week, for an average return of 8%.  See the article below

http://www.bloomberg...antasy-football


Name Rank Num Lineups Won Total Won Invested ROI ROI%
fullerf54 424 119 20
fullerf54 393 119 25
fullerf54 283 119 30
fullerf54 160 119 40
fullerf54 125 119 50
fullerf54 44 119 100 265 357 -92 -34.71698113
gritty_grinder 316 200 25
gritty_grinder 350 200 25
gritty_grinder 400 200 25
gritty_grinder 177 200 35
gritty_grinder 132 200 40
gritty_grinder 85 200 60
gritty_grinder 56 200 80 290 600 -310 -106.8965517
HouseOfAces 117 199 50
HouseOfAces 55 199 100 150 597 -447 -298
hudshub1 296 50 30
hudshub1 103 50 50 80 150 -70 -87.5
juanwoods 213 121 35
juanwoods 213 121 35
juanwoods 213 121 35 105 363 -258 -245.7142857
mrandyclark 476 23 20
mrandyclark 249 23 30
mrandyclark 32 23 150 200 69 131 289.86
mulldog17 350 36 25
mulldog17 283 36 30
mulldog17 7 36 500 555 108 447
PutMeInCoach 372 84 25
PutMeInCoach 174 84 40 65 252 -187 -287.6923077
rjratway 308 61 25
rjratway 363 61 25
rjratway 249 61 30
rjratway 283 61 30
rjratway 197 61 35
rjratway 53 61 100
rjratway 17 61 250
rjratway 20 61 250
rjratway 13 61 300 1045 183 862 571.038
scullymon 444 93 20
scullymon 476 93 20
scullymon 476 93 20
scullymon 326 93 25
scullymon 339 93 25
scullymon 344 93 25
scullymon 272 93 30
scullymon 293 93 30
scullymon 177 93 35
scullymon 152 93 40
scullymon 92 93 60
scullymon 37 93 150
scullymon 18 93 250
scullymon 10 93 400 1130 279 851 405.018
sullieab 463 20 20
sullieab 491 20 20

[JayHopkins]

Big Stu their argument across the board is that it is not gambling (a game of chance) but a game of skill.

 

I understand that it's a sensitive issue but I also think that DFS should not be classified as gambling. It simply lacks the element of randomness that is associated with gambling in my mind. And also I believe that the timing is off - it's already become a massive industry worth billions. Here's another article you might find interesting: http://www.fantasysportsdaily.com/is-dfs-on-the-verge-of-shutting-down/

[McaseyM]

Don't mean to hi-jack things bu involving more football than golf, but to me, the statements that it is A LOT OF LUCK- only goes to the point that it is gambling. I don't care either way if it's classified as gambling or not, if people wanna bet, go for it, but don't tell me it's totally a game of skill. 

If betting on a single game is considered gambling, how is choosing 1-2 players WITHIN that game not a gamble?

There is definitely skill involved on knowing who to play and match-ups, etc. but when you see a match up like the Steeler's unstoppable pass offense the last 5 weeks against the Ravens' worst pass defense in the NFL, why wouldn't you pick up a Steeler's WR (cost me a league championship this year). 

When it comes to golf, there's waaaaaaaaaaaaay too many players for me to know, and while most of the top flight players finish near the top, there's always a few tournies where a nobody comes up and wins. 

[RookieBlue7]

Could be the fact they got their clock cleaned last year on guaranteed pools in golf. I don't blame

Them. Though I expect to see the biggies for the majors