scratch vs. tour

[revkev]

I made it to the finals of my club championship when I was in my mid 30's and at the time I really thought that I was all that.  Of course my club was in a rural county in Indiana, 20K residents in the county 40 percent of whom were Amish.  It measured all of 6500 from the back tees and I was playing to around a 2. 

 

I recently read a blog by Peter Sanders, the developer of the strokes gained statistical analysis for the PGA tour.  In the article he compared data from 14K tour rounds and 8K rounds by scratch golfers.  I think his findings were informative for all of us scratch or not!  Here's a summary.

 

The first thing that he had to do was adjust for course difficulty.  Since the players involved are scratch or better slope (which is difficulty for a bogey golfer) didn't matter.  The average tour event is played to a course rating of 76 while the average scratch golfer plays a course rated 72.  (The average course rating is a tad over 69 BTW). 

 

The result was a staggering 5.45 stroke difference per round between a scratch and a touring pro playing in a tournament.  That's around the difference between a 5 and a 13 if that helps put that matter into perspective.  Another way to look at it is if you want to play on tour you better be a plus 4 and if you want to stay on tour and make a living a plus 6.

 

Now for the eye opener.  Sanders broke it down into 5 major categories, strokes gained driving, approach shots, short game, putting and penalty strokes.  One of these categories made up almost half the difference between a scratch and a tour player and thus far everyone that I've asked has given the wrong answer as to which one although I knew it beyond a doubt.  It's like asking what the difference is between pitching in the majors or in major college.  Everyone will think command and certainly that's there but the biggest difference is velocity.  The average major league fastball clocks in just a tad under 92.  The average DI fastball is around 86. 

 

So now you've got it - driving accounted for two and a half strokes of the difference in scoring per round and the number one reason for that was distance - 285 for the touring pro vs. 255 for the average scratch golfer.  I know that every forum is full of guys who hit the ball 300 with regularity but statistically with lots of data they are the exception and for everyone of them there must be someone else playing to scratch who hits it 210 in order to get to the average.

 

The rest of the categories whittle the strokes away with putting being the next highest differential at 1 (mainly because of 3 putt avoidance.)  The scratch guy actually receives fewer penalties than the average touring pro but that makes sense.  He hits it much shorter, the courses that he's playing aren't as difficult on average and because the pro makes more birdies and has the superior short game he's far more likely to take risks.

 

So much for drive for show, putt for dough. 

 

The stats are the stats by the way so they aren't open for debate.  Interpretation of them is another matter. Thoughts on what this might mean for our games?

 

[BigtazzGolf]

How dare you bring facts to a debate haha.

Always thought a tour player, man or woman would wear out the scratch golfers. Especially when those scratch players play a tour ready course.

For my game, I've always thought the area 30 yds and in is where I can save strokes in my game.

I think that area of a tour player is where they really separate themselves from us. Miss the green, chip or pitch and 1 putt and move on. Easy to say, not so easy to do.

 

Tazz

 

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[revkev]

The reality is different Tazz, it's off the tee. They are better in that area than the scratch golfer but the biggest separation starts with the tee ball. Further if it's that way with a scratch how much more so is it with a mid single digit guy like you are I where the average drive drops further to 245?

 

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[Jmikecpa]

The reality is different Tazz, it's off the tee. They are better in that area than the scratch golfer but the biggest separation starts with the tee ball. Further if it's that way with a scratch how much more so is it with a mid single digit guy like you are I where the average drive drops further to 245?

 

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I would disagree and say it is short game. I have played golf with several tour pros and I could keep up with them or in some cases was longer than them off the tee. Inside 100 yards and putting is where they destroyed me.

 

 

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[revkev]

The numbers are the numbers jmike you can't disagree with them. As we know individual results may vary and Sanders makes that point. But on average these numbers hold.

 

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[chemclub]

Going back to what Jmike said, if they put the ball closer to the hole inside of 100 yards, that might account for the putting difference. You sink more 10 footers than 20 footers. But I suppose strokes gained would account for that.

[Jmikecpa]

The numbers are the numbers jmike you can't disagree with them. As we know individual results may vary and Sanders makes that point. But on average these numbers hold.

 

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I can and do on a daily basis. Statistics and numbers may point you in a direction but are not the absolute answer. I start every single day with a pack of numbers that I question and I work in the casino industry where statistics are king but experience is the key. I trust my eye more than just statistics.

 

Three of the pros I played with said if they had my length and accuracy they would have dominated. And if I had their short game I would be unstoppable in any club event.

 

 

 

 

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[revkev]

I'm sure you are correct and if that question were what separates a particular scratch golfer from a touring pro any category or combination of categories that equals 5.45 works.

 

The author's point was that when you take 8000 rounds played by scratch players and compare the data to a composite PGA pro the biggest difference maker is driving with average distance being the largest part of that.

 

The exception (jmike) doesn't disprove the rule.

 

I''m willing to bet that there is an 18 out there who putts as well as a touring pro or drives it as well for that matter. He just really stinks at everything else.

 

Finally while I enjoy the strokes gained concept as a measure they aren't the end all be all. After all in a given round I hit 14 tee shots, 18 approach shots and 32 putts. The number of chips or pitches vary based on how well I hit those approaches. So I orang golfer hit a substatial number of short shots. That part of the game can't be ignored as if it didn't matter.

 

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[cksurfdude]

I'm going to butt in with a punch line from an old joke: You're both right!

 

Statistical analysis on a large enough data set (that sufficiently includes a "population") can help us see overall trends. Tending around that trend will be a variance of data points, higher and lower than the trend itself. (Rev)

 

But, of course, any conclusions attempted to be made using that data (and derived trends) must be made within the proper context. (JMike)

 

So I'd submit that you're both right .. that is, when comparing...

-- a tour player to a scratch golfer the one biggest difference *over the set of data analyzed* appears to be "A";

but when comparing...

-- a tour player to another tour player (presumably across all the "+" handicaps in that data) then the one biggest difference *over the set of data analyzed* is not "A" but something else...

 

To that second part, I think anyone who has watched a pro event either on TV or live can observe for ourselves that .. for the most part .. in general most pros hit their tee shots to approximately the same landing area (when you see a tee shot land you can see all the earlier players' second shot divots in that area) .. ie. a general trend.

 

But then the variances start to widen in the second / approach shots and the proximity to the hole - and then widen further with greenside / bunker scrambling.

 

Anyway bit of a nerdy rant there but Rev's main points are interesting with my main takeaways that...

A. I'm very jealous of JMike's driving talent!! (weakest part of my game)

And,

B. 285 - 300 in the fairway 80+% of the time generally beats 245 - 255 in the fairway maybe 60-70% of the time.

[Dana]

Very interesting.  I will work on my short game cause at my age speed is not an option.

[Jmikecpa]

I don't disagree with the statistics at all; just interpret them a bit differently. I think the stoke margin of 5.5 is accurate but not sure that I agree with the tee shot as being the biggest reason. For a hypothetical take a target golf course where the tour pro essentially has their length neutralized and is playing into greens from the same distance as the scratch am. Whom would have more of an advantage in this scenario? My bet would be on the tour pro every time and think that the gap would widen in the stroke differential.

 

 

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[Sproutland]

I don't disagree with the statistics at all; just interpret them a bit differently. I think the stoke margin of 5.5 is accurate but not sure that I agree with the tee shot as being the biggest reason. For a hypothetical take a target golf course where the tour pro essentially has their length neutralized and is playing into greens from the same distance as the scratch am. Whom would have more of an advantage in this scenario? My bet would be on the tour pro every time and think that the gap would widen in the stroke differential.

 

 

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I would contend that on those target courses the pro with greater length is still taking shorter clubs from the same spot making it easier to get close from those spots. For example a pro would hit 5 iron, wedge to targets where the scratch player would hit 3 iron, 9 iron. It would still be easier for the pro to get closer to both the landing area off the tee and the pin on the approach.

 

 

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[revkev]

This is turning into an interesting discussion. I've been to plenty of PGA events as well and while its true that on many holes they will play to a point ther are those hole where length becomes a huge advantage. Course set ups are extremely difficult and the longer player (Dustin Johnson) has a big advance when he's hitting wedge to a tucked pin over the guy hitting 7 iron.

 

Generally speaking the separation among pros will be distance to the hole on approach shots. At least that's what I see from the available data. This upcoming weekend is a different animal because length tends to not be as big of an advantage in Opens. Again this is what makes winning multiple different majos so difficult. They each require a different skill set.

 

We had a number of Canadian tour players winter at our club this past season. It was fun to hob nob with them on the range. They are very into their stats and had a program that compared their play to the profile of a top 50 player on the PGA tour. It was intriguing. I spent lots of time with one guy who was working on changing his ball flight from draw to fade to eliminate the left side because he told me his draw was killing him in the final round of tournaments whe his nerves would kick in. Fascinating

[Kenny B]

Has anyone looked at the LPGA stats to see if it's similar?  My guess is it's different, and I am not sure why, but I think it's more short game driven.  

 

The other day I was watching the group of Lexi, Brooke and Lydia on Friday of the US Women's Open.  On one par 5 Lexi hit it 280, Brooke 260, and Lydia 240; they all made birdie.  Brooke missed the cut, Lexi made it on the number, and Lydia was in contention to win on Sunday until the 9th hole.      

 

It could be that for the women, it's more how well they manage their misses and their short games.  When I look at field vs field, men vs women, I think women are better putters, and the differences in distance off the tee between the women is not that much of an advantage as it is for the men.  Maybe the stats don't bear that out, but that's the way it seems to me.

[revkev]

Strokes gained driving aren't totally distance driven but having written that you may be correct Kenny although not so much about the disparity in driving distance.  Plus you are giving yardages on one hole.  There may have been reasons why Lydia hit it the distance that she did. 

 

There is the same disparity between longest driving distance and average driving distance on both tours.  It's 35 yards for the men and 30 for the women which is the same percentage wise.  What is different is that a number of the longest drivers on the PGA tour are also towards the top of the money list where as that's not the case for the LPGA.

 

it would be interesting to see if someone actually had the numbers.

[Aladage]

I was a +1.4 at one time and I played in a couple of tournaments...nothing like a little pressure to pucker you up and change your swing. I played some tough course with slope of 73/74 and never shot under 75. Tough to perform with pressure...

 

 

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[Kenny B]

I was a +1.4 at one time and I played in a couple of tournaments...nothing like a little pressure to pucker you up and change your swing. I played some tough course with slope of 73/74 and never shot under 75. Tough to perform with pressure...

 

 

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About as tough as me playing with MGS members that I have never met before!!  I've had great memories though.

[Aladage]

About as tough as me playing with MGS members that I have never met before!! I've had great memories though.

Yeah for sure. I'm usually pretty good except for in tournaments. Put way too much pressure on myself. Can't relax.

 

 

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[drewneddy]

New to the forums, figured I'd weigh in.

 

I've won 9 club championships, had a D1 scholarship, at my best was prob +2.5. And I never even sniffed tour. Or web.com tour for that matter. I'd say 95% of D1 college players will never make more in a fiscal year than they would working a real job. Our best player made like $800 on the sunshine tour the year after he graduated.

 

I played against Keegan Bradley at St John's . At the time he didn't seem great. He really took off later in his career.

 

From my observations, comparing myself to upper tier amateurs, comparing them to tour pros the difference is absolutely distance and proximity. The tour has changed the last decade and it seems like everyone is a bomber. It was refreshing to me to see Spieth win two majors last year since he has an old school game. He's 280-300 off the tee. Excellent putter and short game.

 

The new guys are similar to bubba, DJ, JB Holmes. Driver - wedge everywhere and average putters. But I did see DJ leads the tour in proximity from 125yds and in.

 

Anyway... Just my 2 cents.

 

 

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[cksurfdude]

New to the forums, figured I'd weigh in.

 

I've won 9 club championships, had a D1 scholarship, at my best was prob +2.5. And I never even sniffed tour. Or web.com tour for that matter. I'd say 95% of D1 college players will never make more in a fiscal year than they would working a real job. Our best player made like $800 on the sunshine tour the year after he graduated.

 

I played against Keegan Bradley at St John's . At the time he didn't seem great. He really took off later in his career.

 

From my observations, comparing myself to upper tier amateurs, comparing them to tour pros the difference is absolutely distance and proximity. The tour has changed the last decade and it seems like everyone is a bomber. It was refreshing to me to see Spieth win two majors last year since he has an old school game. He's 280-300 off the tee. Excellent putter and short game.

 

The new guys are similar to bubba, DJ, JB Holmes. Driver - wedge everywhere and average putters. But I did see DJ leads the tour in proximity from 125yds and in.

 

Anyway... Just my 2 cents.

Interesting insights, thanks. It seems to me that to be able to win [on the PGA Tour] .. and win more than once .. you have to have a strong all-around game; you cannot be a "specialist" in any one single area.

[RookieBlue7]

I'll tell you one thing I've seen first hand on multiple occasions from a couple different pros (and the number is growing as the instructor here has been seeing more and more pros and they're around more).  Pros that rarely play a course will destroy scratch amateur on their own home course around 99.9% of the time.  They don't do it with staggering power or insanely sharp short games or anything else.  The first place they dominate them is between the ears.  The guys that grind it out playing for a living have a mental make-up different than the scratch club champion.  They have creativity that most scratch amateurs don't possess and they're able to see lines and play lines that most amateurs don't see.  Yes, their short games are much better most of the time.  But where they lap the field at any country club in America is their mental capacities.  I saw a scratch multiple time club champ throw up a -4 68 on the 7200 yard country club here.  He owed Boo Weekley a bunch of money after he threw up the easiest 63 I've ever seen on him.  Boo never broke a sweat.  It was masterful to watch, really.  The saying that's been their slogan for a while is very true "these guys are good".  

[revkev]

The stroke differential between the average touring pro and the proto type scratch player is 5.45 which equates to around 6 strokes a round according to the article. Rookie's observation would be the norm and Aladage's (welcome) the normal inside the ropes observation as to the why of that norm.

 

Let's put this in perspective. He was a DI player when he was a plus 1.4. My latest revision has me at a 4.1 (I'm playing well and it's trending down). The gap between the 2 of us is the gap between a touring pro and a scratch. We had any number of DI players practice at my club in the winter. I'm telling you right now that the only comparison between our games is around the greens. We also had several Canadian Tour guys whom I got to practice with. I never got to see them play the course but the level of consistency was remarkable and the fairway wood after fairway wood dancing the ball around the stick that was 273 away was beyond impressive.

[GolfSpyC]

I think part of what people don't understand is that why the article gets us to that 5-6 strokes/round, that's just the beginning of the conversation. 

 

Not all strokes are equal. Those 6 strokes or so are huge, in part b/c of how difficult it is to find them. It's not like you're going from and 87 to an 81 where you can likely find 6 strokes pretty easily.

 

You're talking about going from something like a 71 to a 65. That is a vast, vast chasm.

[revkev]

I think part of what people don't understand is that why the article gets us to that 5-6 strokes/round, that's just the beginning of the conversation. 

 

Not all strokes are equal. Those 6 strokes or so are huge, in part b/c of how difficult it is to find them. It's not like you're going from and 87 to an 81 where you can likely find 6 strokes pretty easily.

 

You're talking about going from something like a 71 to a 65. That is a vast, vast chasm.

Spoken by a man who got to see some of that up close and personal a few weeks ago. And that's to get to average. According to the article the normal tour course has approximately a 76 course rating the way it's set up. The leading scoring averages on tour are around 69. That's 7 under the expected score of a scratch player on that course. That's going to be around a plus 8 handicap. That's what it takes to win on tour.

 

I hadn't looked at it that way before but wow!

[GolfSpyC]

The more a scratch (I've been a +1 to 1 pretty much the last 4 years) compares him or herself to an average pro, the more you realize how significant 5, 6 or 7 strokes are per round. 

 

Played a couple rounds with a fella currently on the PGA Tour and he was much better than me in every single facet. The amount by which he was better did vary, but here's a quick breakdown of how our two games stacked up.

 

1) Driver/3 wood - He was a good 30-40 yards longer than me on average and much straighter. As a result, his misses were much, much better than mine.

 

2) Long irons - We were actually pretty even here as neither of us had many of these yardages during this round and I hit mine reasonably good and he hit his just okay.

 

3) Mid/Short irons - This was all about proximity to the hole - Again, I wasn't bad, but if I averaged 15-20 feet from the hole, he was a good 10 feet better. Hit it closer, make more putts. 

 

4) Around the green - This was like a toolbox. I have a hammer, screwdriver and a couple other tools. He had the whole Home Depot. Other than our tee balls, this was the most noticeable difference.

 

5) Putting - He's an average putter and I putted pretty well that day - He maybe picked up 1-2 shots on me here. 

[Undershooter]

Damn this is a good discussion that I've been missing out on. It was a very good read!

 

Personally I know that I'm as long or longer than most on the PGA tour but I still think that's the biggest difference between mine and their game. I hit it long but also bring a lot of bad things into play with that. They hit it long and it's on a rope. Their big miss is my small miss. They just don't have the same amount of errant shots as myself. A member at our club played D1 and the mini tours and his weakness is short game and mostly putting. He hits the ball so consistently straight and where he wants to the point it's stupid.

 

Someone earlier mentioned that putting them on a shorter course would give the pro a bigger advantage and I can't disagree. In the club championship on our executive course last year this guy came from behind in the final round to beat me. He hit driver off of EVERYTHING. And it was always in the fairway, which is amazing bc this is a tight windy little 5000 yard par 64. Their strokes gained with the driver is not just their length but their precision with it. Its nice being able to Hit driver when the other guy is having to hit 2i to keep it in the short stuff.

[jbil8802]

It really is impressive. One of the guys that just joined our club played at LSU with Smylie Kaufman and Andrew Loupe. He also played on the mini tours for a while but didn't have the same success as his teammates. His handicap now sits at +3.2. My chances at a future club championship are looking a lot smaller now.

[GolfSpyC]

Damn this is a good discussion that I've been missing out on. It was a very good read!

 

Personally I know that I'm as long or longer than most on the PGA tour but I still think that's the biggest difference between mine and their game. I hit it long but also bring a lot of bad things into play with that. They hit it long and it's on a rope. Their big miss is my small miss. They just don't have the same amount of errant shots as myself. A member at our club played D1 and the mini tours and his weakness is short game and mostly putting. He hits the ball so consistently straight and where he wants to the point it's stupid.

 

Someone earlier mentioned that putting them on a shorter course would give the pro a bigger advantage and I can't disagree. In the club championship on our executive course last year this guy came from behind in the final round to beat me. He hit driver off of EVERYTHING. And it was always in the fairway, which is amazing bc this is a tight windy little 5000 yard par 64. Their strokes gained with the driver is not just their length but their precision with it. Its nice being able to Hit driver when the other guy is having to hit 2i to keep it in the short stuff.

 

 

Yeah, the distance thing is a funny one - Because there's at least 5 guys in our Wednesday night league that swing it at/above PGA tour averages.  But so what? Like you said, length alone doesn't mean a whole lot if you can't control it - You can hit it further, but it also means you can hit it further off line. It's pretty amazing to see how straight they are off the tee - I'd take their typical miss 8/10 times and on my home course, I'd break par all day long if you gave me that tee ball. 

[revkev]

I'd have to reread the article but I believe the author stated that half the 2.5 strokes differential in driving as distance and the other half was accuracy.  Of course there are variances between touring pros and wider variances still between scratch players and those variances widen further the higher the handicap.  So there will be a percentage of scratch golfers who drive the ball as far as the average touring pro - it will be a low but measurable one - those guys won't have the short game to match though.  We are talking 5.45 strokes per round.

 

What would also be interesting would be a comparison between a scratch male golfer and the average LPGA player.  I think this one would be an eye opener for a lot of guys because the LPGA player is going to be around a plus 3.  I'd be curious to see how she got there and where the gaps would be.  Looking at the average driving numbers on the LPGA this season the top 10 are all significantly longer than the average  scratch guy's 255.  Of course no scratch player is owning up to 255 nor is he willing to say that the women could out drive him.  I know better because I got to watch a couple of LPGA players up close and personal for a year - they are long, they are good ball strikers and they are consistent - with Brittany it's not one drive 275 - it's every drive and they bad ones are just over cooked a bit.

[drewneddy]

Actually if you adjust the CR/Slope for the women playing the men's tees I think you would see they would be more +7-+10 range

 

 

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