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So I'm reading that most think the odds of getting a hole in one are lower than getting an eagle on a par 4. I'm failing to see why that would be.  Let's talk non pro players at most public courses and white tees. Now I have a big fat zero in my hole in one column and a healthy handful of eagles albeit most on par 5's - so it follows the premise, but still seems odd.  On shorter par 4's, a good average drive leaves you at roughly the same distance as most par 3's.  Yes, you get to place or tee your ball on a par 3, but I shouldn't think that would be the deciding factor?  What are your thoughts? 🤔

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I generally think that par 4 greens are more accessible than par 3 greens. Usually there is more bunkering on par 3's, so that you might have to aim away from more pins. I also think that we aren't taking in to account driveable par 4's which can significantly skew the odds. 

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A par 3, at the same yardage as a par 4 approach shot, has an advantage of a perfect lie.  Eliminating the drivable par 4's, I would think that the odds would be better on par 3's.  

I've had 3 holes-in-one, and probably about the same number of eagles on par 4... I just don't remember exactly how many, but I will never forget the aces.

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Here are my statistics:

  • Holes in one = ZERO
  • Par 5 eagles, holing out from fairway = 3
  • Par 5 eagles, by sinking a putt = 4
  • Par 4 eagles, holing out from fairway = 2

The general difference between holing out on par 4s and 5s, versus par 3s is distance of the approach shot/tee shot.  I normally play longer par 3s, most much longer than 150 yards.

Here are the distances of the 5 shots I holed out for eagle from the fairway with:  100 yards, 40 yards, 110 yards, 160 yards, and 123 yards.  The last two were the par 4s I've holed out on, which were a bit longer.

You would think that eventually I would hole out on a par 3 of less than 150 yards, but it just hasn't happened for me.  But your proximity to the hole gets better the closer you get to the hole, no matter what the par on a hole is.  I just don't get very many short par 3s to hit at.  The other thing to consider is that you play a lot more par 4s then you do par 3s and 5s, so the number of attempts with approach shots is much higher on those holes.  And I've had many eagle attempts from inside of 100 yards on par 5s, including many fringe chips and half wedges inside of 100 yards.  Again, you are closer to the hole, so the odds of you holing out something closer goes up.

Just my worthless two cents.

 

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I am now down to a ONE handicap. In getting there I’ve played 205 rounds over the past 30 months. I’ve had one hole in 1 and four eagles. The eagles all came on Par5 holes. So statistically I’ve had the opportunity to achieve a hole in one on 820 holes (4 holes per round) for a rate of .0012. In comparison I’ve had the opportunity to achieve an eagle on 2870 holes (14 holes per round) for a rate of .0014

 

my answer from the eyes of my foxhole is..........same same

 

 

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It could be that the statements made in the couple of articles I was reading are largely based on tour statistics. I would guess the par 5's would skew things since so many are yielding eagles. Also, neither stated how much lower the odds were of making a hole in one - simply that they were lower.  @SteddyGolfdata seems to support this.

 

 

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I see two or three two opposing factors here.  First is simply the number of opportunities.  There are generally only 4 chances for an ace on any one day, and 14 opportunities to hole out a shot for eagle.  The second factor is length.  For the courses I play, and with my length, I have a moderate number of short irons and wedges into greens, say 30 to 40% of the 10 par-4 holes, and all of the par-5s, if I hit my tee shot reasonably well.  But I see very few par-3 holes that short.   Most of the rest of the par-4 holes I'll be hitting a mid- to long-iron, not dissimilar to most par-3 holes.  Both of these two factors, more chances, and more shorter shots, would suggest that we should make more holed-out eagles than aces.  On the other hand, you do have to hit one or two good shots to get those opportunities for the hole-out, which pushes the odds a bit back towards the ace.

In my own game, I know I've made 3 aces in close to 50 years of playing golf.  I don't have the statistics. but I'm sure I've made more than a dozen hole-out eagles.

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I see two or three two opposing factors here.  First is simply the number of opportunities.  There are generally only 4 chances for an ace on any one day, and 14 opportunities to hole out a shot for eagle.  The second factor is length.  For the courses I play, and with my length, I have a moderate number of short irons and wedges into greens, say 30 to 40% of the 10 par-4 holes, and all of the par-5s, if I hit my tee shot reasonably well.  But I see very few par-3 holes that short.   Most of the rest of the par-4 holes I'll be hitting a mid- to long-iron, not dissimilar to most par-3 holes.  Both of these two factors, more chances, and more shorter shots, would suggest that we should make more holed-out eagles than aces.  On the other hand, you do have to hit one or two good shots to get those opportunities for the hole-out, which pushes the odds a bit back towards the ace.

In my own game, I know I've made 3 aces in close to 50 years of playing golf.  I don't have the statistics. but I'm sure I've made more than a dozen hole-out eagles.

I would say there are 18 eagle opportunities; generally 4 of those can also be a hole in one.

 

I have never had a hole in one but have holed out from the fairway (100+ yards)...whether that is for eagle, birdie, or double.. probably 10 times.

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If we are talking tour stats then it makes sense that eagle percentage on a par 4 is higher than a hole-in-one on a par 3.

There are a lot more par 4 approach shots from wedge or short iron distance compared to par 3's.  We see long par 3's all the time on tour 180-240 is completely normal.  You also see guys hitting 320yds + off the tee and hitting wedges in to a lot of par 4's.  That also doesn't take in account the driveable par 4's.  

So yeah, holing out with a wedge from the fairway happens more often than sinking a 5i or 6i off the tee.

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