COVID-19

[sirchunksalot]

1 hour ago, MDGolfHacker said:

I made some Vietnamese spring rolls the other week.  Man were they good!  On another note, the day I haven't been looking forward to has finally arrived...the water heater tank sprung a leak. It was by chance I discovered it because my wife spilled something on our brand new couch and I was getting the steam cleaner from the same storage room as the water heater.  Looks like the expansion tank hasd developed a small pin hole rust spot and is leaking from there.  It was on borrowed time since it was the original tank when the house was built in 98.  Still hurts though....there goes any new clubs...

 

MDGolfHacker

The spring rolls sound delicious. I love both the egg and spring variety. 

 

I'm sorry to hear about the water heater, but at least it sounds like you caught it before it got too bad. 

[MDGolfHacker]

34 minutes ago, Siamese Moose said:

My wife's aunt has died from COVID. My mother in law is beside herself with grief, because there won't be a funeral.

A friend"s twin 3 YO boys have tested positive, probably from their daycare, even though they haven"t been for three weeks.

My condolences to you and your wife's family.

 

MDGolfHacker

[Kenny B]

1 hour ago, MDGolfHacker said:

I made some Vietnamese spring rolls the other week.  Man were they good!  On another note, the day I haven't been looking forward to has finally arrived...the water heater tank sprung a leak. It was by chance I discovered it because my wife spilled something on our brand new couch and I was getting the steam cleaner from the same storage room as the water heater.  Looks like the expansion tank has developed a small pin hole rust spot and is leaking from there.  It was on borrowed time since it was the original tank when the house was built in 98.  Still hurts though....there goes any new clubs...

 

MDGolfHacker

When you mix good things and bad things in a post, I wish I could "like" and "sad" at the same time.  FYI, I liked your post because of the spring rolls, not because of your water heater leak.  

[Kenny B]

43 minutes ago, Siamese Moose said:

My wife's aunt has died from COVID. My mother in law is beside herself with grief, because there won't be a funeral.

A friend"s twin 3 YO boys have tested positive, probably from their daycare, even though they haven"t been for three weeks.

My condolences.  I'm sure your family will remember her at a later time when the family can get together again.

[Rickp]

I made some Vietnamese spring rolls the other week.  Man were they good!  On another note, the day I haven't been looking forward to has finally arrived...the water heater tank sprung a leak. It was by chance I discovered it because my wife spilled something on our brand new couch and I was getting the steam cleaner from the same storage room as the water heater.  Looks like the expansion tank has developed a small pin hole rust spot and is leaking from there.  It was on borrowed time since it was the original tank when the house was built in 98.  Still hurts though....there goes any new clubs...
 
MDGolfHacker

Since 98 wow, you got some mileage out of that unit! Bad timing though.

Spring Rolls!! That’s great stuff!!


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[sirchunksalot]

1 hour ago, Siamese Moose said:

My wife's aunt has died from COVID. My mother in law is beside herself with grief, because there won't be a funeral.

A friend"s twin 3 YO boys have tested positive, probably from their daycare, even though they haven"t been for three weeks.

Very sorry to hear about that. Losing a family member is excruciating, and I can't imagine it happening at a time like this. My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family. 

[Rickp]

My wife's aunt has died from COVID. My mother in law is beside herself with grief, because there won't be a funeral.
A friend"s twin 3 YO boys have tested positive, probably from their daycare, even though they haven"t been for three weeks.

Sorry for your family loss. Hope the Twins get well quickly.


Sent from my iPhone using MyGolfSpy

[silver & black]

I just came from Yahoo news..... yea, I know.

Some dude in an article said we should prepare for 18 months more of shut down. Ummm.... yea... good luck with that.

[THEZIPR23]

48 minutes ago, silver & black said:

I just came from Yahoo news..... yea, I know.

Some dude in an article said we should prepare for 18 months more of shut down. Ummm.... yea... good luck with that.

From a health perspective it may be the best course of action from an economic standpoint ain’t no way it’s going to last that long. We will come out of it but normal will no longer be normal. There will be some pretty significant changes, some probably good, but many probably not. 

[MDGolfHacker]

21 hours ago, Rickp said:

Since 98 wow, you got some mileage out of that unit! Bad timing though.

Spring Rolls!! That’s great stuff!!


Sent from my iPhone using MyGolfSpy

Sure did.  I knew I was living on borrowed time .  Plumber is coming out tomorrow to replace it.  Found out I should be purging the water heater once a year..Never heard of that, lol

21 hours ago, Kenny B said:

When you mix good things and bad things in a post, I wish I could "like" and "sad" at the same time.  FYI, I liked your post because of the spring rolls, not because of your water heater leak.  

Balance the bad with the good

 

MDGolfHacker

[bens197]

There will always be hope. Maybe we’re being unrealistic. I don’t know.

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/04/10/sports-arent-coming-back-soon

[MattF]

11 hours ago, MDGolfHacker said:

Found out I should be purging the water heater once a year..Never heard of that, lol

Yep. It gets rid of the sediment that accumulates in the bottom of the tank. Open the bottom valve (put a hose on it) and keep it opened until you see the water running clear.

[cnosil]

There will always be hope. Maybe we’re being unrealistic. I don’t know.

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/04/10/sports-arent-coming-back-soon

This makes a lot Of sense. It applies to more than just sports same for schools and work. It will be a while before the world gets back to some form of normalcy.

[RickyBobby_PR]

13 hours ago, silver & black said:

I just came from Yahoo news..... yea, I know.

Some dude in an article said we should prepare for 18 months more of shut down. Ummm.... yea... good luck with that.

 

12 hours ago, THEZIPR23 said:

From a health perspective it may be the best course of action from an economic standpoint ain’t no way it’s going to last that long. We will come out of it but normal will no longer be normal. There will be some pretty significant changes, some probably good, but many probably not. 

Dr Fauci has been one that has talked about needing 18 months early on. Definitely no way economically we could have that and the world wouldn’t be able to deal with that either. Numbers are flattening, certain drugs are having positive effects. The Swedish experiment is an interesting to follow. They were doing good with their death totals while going with only a small quarantine of at risk population. Right now signs point it it possibly being the wrong move but many still says it’s too early to tell if their approach was the right one by letting people get infected and develop anti bodies to fight it off.

Gov Abbott is looking at ways to open Texas back up while protecting the population and imo slowing states to look at their situation and do what’s best for their state vice a one size fits all federal approach is the way to go. 
 

Many of the heaviest hit areas are hitting their peak this week or close to it. The next two weeks should give an indication of where things are and it seems like almost daily we are seeing the predictions drop drastically for the needs of icu beds, ventilators and death totals 

[tommc23]

Go get the pork you need now folks a plant in South Dakota shut down due to this whole thing. https://www.theblaze.com/news/one-of-americas-largest-meat-producers-has-ominous-warning-about-grocery-store-supply

[Berg Ryman]

1 hour ago, RickyBobby_PR said:

The Swedish experiment is an interesting to follow. They were doing good with their death totals while going with only a small quarantine of at risk population. Right now signs point it it possibly being the wrong move but many still says it’s too early to tell if their approach was the right one by letting people get infected and develop anti bodies to fight it off.

Dude, they have a death rate of 7.68% of people who have gotten the virus, compared to 3.21% here, and 1.46% in neighboring Norway. It's an awful decision.

Simply put, until testing capability meets testing demand, things should stay closed and when this is over, we as a country and globally are going to need to take a long look in the mirror and figure out the necessary political, societal, and economic changes to make sure that this doesn't happen on this scale again. I'm reminded of something said last night on Last Week Tonight, band-aids are necessary right now because we're bleeding, but at the end of the day, surgery is an absolute necessity. 

[RickyBobby_PR]

6 minutes ago, Berg Ryman said:

Dude, they have a death rate of 7.68% of people who have gotten the virus, compared to 3.21% here, and 1.46% in neighboring Norway. It's an awful decision.

Simply put, until testing capability meets testing demand, things should stay closed and when this is over, we as a country and globally are going to need to take a long look in the mirror and figure out the necessary political, societal, and economic changes to make sure that this doesn't happen on this scale again. I'm reminded of something said last night on Last Week Tonight, band-aids are necessary right now because we're bleeding, but at the end of the day, surgery is an absolute necessity. 

Yes it is climbing but even the experts are torn between it being the right move or not. Italy even with a 45 day quarantine had seen a rise in the number of cases. 
 

Theres light at the end of the tunnel and we have to see how real life plays out and not just a bunch of models that continue to be wrong. NY went from needing 100k+ beds and asking permission to switch the USNS Comfort’s mission to handling covid cases to predicting only needing 20-30k in a couple days last week even before reaching their peak.

While we have had numerous things over the course of the history of this country that have changed our norms a prolonged economic shutdown will destroy this country. We don’t know what the new norm will be but the longer we go the worse it will be. To avoid the thread going down the wrong path I’m done

[Golfspy_CG2]

There has been a lot good/informative and thankfully very civil conversation in this thread.  

There's not much I can add that hasn't already been said.    But my biggest breakaway from it is.

That it makes me very sad, that the largest thread on the forum in the four years I've  been here, is about something that has nothing to do with golf       I wish some  of our equipment and major conversations could have this much activity!    But I know, ti's a situation that is much larger than any sports topic and has affected so many of us in ways we couldn't have imagined this time last year.

Stay Safe and Healthy Everyone1

 

[MaxEntropy]

5 minutes ago, RickyBobby_PR said:

...just a bunch of models that continue to be wrong...

I know you said you were done, and I'm not trying to draw you back in, but wanted to give a simplified post on how and why models can be so far off (at least my opinion on the subject).

Modelling exponential growth is not easy, especially if you don't really know your inputs (i.e. how often the number of cases is actually doubling). Ideally, one would like to fit historical data and extrapolate, but much of the historical data is questionable - is China data trustworthy (likely not)? Can we apply South Korea data (given how different their response and behavior was, I would say no)? Italy was probably similar enough to help, but by the time their data was becoming clearer, it was likely too late to help us. Without widespread, accurate testing, the doubling rate is somewhat unknown. Small changes in the doubling rate will have huge effects later on. In the chart below, I made up the data, but the equation used is pretty close to the growth rate in Ohio early on in tracking. The blue data assumes doubling every 4 days, the red is double every 3 days. If you let those rates play out over a month, there is almost a factor of 6 difference in the number of "cases". I don't pretend to know much about the models - other than they are likely dynamic and make a bunch of assumptions about human behavior (introducing even more uncertainty), but I know enough about math to know that small changes in exponential growth rates result in huge changes. I would assume that some of the models are a "worst case scenario" given their set of assumptions, but that's just my guess.

[chisag]

4 minutes ago, MaxEntropy said:

I know you said you were done, and I'm not trying to draw you back in, but wanted to give a simplified post on how and why models can be so far off (at least my opinion on the subject).

Modelling exponential growth is not easy, especially if you don't really know your inputs (i.e. how often the number of cases is actually doubling). Ideally, one would like to fit historical data and extrapolate, but much of the historical data is questionable - is China data trustworthy (likely not)? Can we apply South Korea data (given how different their response and behavior was, I would say no)? Italy was probably similar enough to help, but by the time their data was becoming clearer, it was likely too late to help us. Without widespread, accurate testing, the doubling rate is somewhat unknown. Small changes in the doubling rate will have huge effects later on. In the chart below, I made up the data, but the equation used is pretty close to the growth rate in Ohio early on in tracking. The blue data assumes doubling every 4 days, the red is double every 3 days. If you let those rates play out over a month, there is almost a factor of 6 difference in the number of "cases". I don't pretend to know much about the models - other than they are likely dynamic and make a bunch of assumptions about human behavior (introducing even more uncertainty), but I know enough about math to know that small changes in exponential growth rates result in huge changes. I would assume that some of the models are a "worst case scenario" given their set of assumptions, but that's just my guess.

 

... I don't have many on ignore here but the ones I do sure make the forum more enjoyable. 

[RetiredBoomer]

Did the moderator delete my post?

I don't understand the objection.

[StrokerAce]

2 minutes ago, RetiredBoomer said:

Did the moderator delete my post?

I don't understand the objection.

Feel free to send PM to any/all moderators if you have any direct questions... 

[Berg Ryman]

Hrrrmmm... press conference going right now says New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island are forming a combined Covid-19 task force, led by the governors to try to figure out a plan toward reopening their states on a similar timeline. That's an interesting development and if it works, I can see other regional states getting together.

[bens197]

Hrrrmmm... press conference going right now says New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island are forming a combined Covid-19 task force, led by the governors to try to figure out a plan toward reopening their states on a similar timeline. That's an interesting development and if it works, I can see other regional states getting together.

I understand why they want to get back to normal but I have one concern. Our local health dept believes Upstate & WNY are now 3-5 weeks away from peak. If testing were available for all citizens I’d say go full throttle but I still fear we’re not even close yet. The daily briefings I receive from our Medical director and Chief lead me to believe we’re looking at July / August as a best case.

[RickyBobby_PR]

6 minutes ago, bens197 said:

I understand why they want to get back to normal but I have one concern. Our local health dept believes Upstate & WNY are now 3-5 weeks away from peak. If testing were available for all citizens I’d say go full throttle but I still fear we’re not even close yet. The daily briefings I receive from our Medical director and Chief lead me to believe we’re looking at July / August as a best case.

They can look at opening parts of the state(s) up and working on helping others stay isolated.the entire country is on different peaking cycles and if certain parts can be opened up while others remain lockdown to some extent it’s not a bad thing to get people and businesses back and running even if it’s a trickle effect. 

[chisag]

9 minutes ago, bens197 said:

I understand why they want to get back to normal but I have one concern. Our local health dept believes Upstate & WNY are now 3-5 weeks away from peak. If testing were available for all citizens I’d say go full throttle but I still fear we’re not even close yet. The daily briefings I receive from our Medical director and Chief lead me to believe we’re looking at July / August as a best case.

 

... The number that scares me the most is approximately 25% of those with Covid are asymptomatic. While I really want to have faith in my fellow man and believe many will do the right thing and be tested before venturing back out in public, I have seen too many knuckleheads on the golf course that lead me to believe they will be just as irresponsible with Covid. And as we all know, particularly with this highly contagious virus, the few can infect the many. Just no easy answers at this point. 

[tommc23]

18 minutes ago, Berg Ryman said:

Hrrrmmm... press conference going right now says New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island are forming a combined Covid-19 task force, led by the governors to try to figure out a plan toward reopening their states on a similar timeline. That's an interesting development and if it works, I can see other regional states getting together.

Heck there are so many people from New York in PA right now it is kind of irritating because they are all from NYC. Sorry Ben but those idiots are coming here because they want to be tested. If you aren't being tested in your own area why go to another and possibly spread it to more people? The lack of thinking and the amount of selfishness I still see bothers me.

[Berg Ryman]

14 minutes ago, bens197 said:

I understand why they want to get back to normal but I have one concern. Our local health dept believes Upstate & WNY are now 3-5 weeks away from peak. If testing were available for all citizens I’d say go full throttle but I still fear we’re not even close yet. The daily briefings I receive from our Medical director and Chief lead me to believe we’re looking at July / August as a best case.

Oh, as you know from our PM communications over this I agree with your timeline assessment. I just think it's a discussion of the groups understanding the overlap of citizens they all have and working together to put a plan in place once everyone feels it's safe to open, not to jerk immediately toward reopening. Sorry if it came off that way my man!

[bens197]

Oh, as you know from our PM communications over this I agree with your timeline assessment. I just think it's a discussion of the groups understanding the overlap of citizens they all have and working together to put a plan in place once everyone feels it's safe to open, not to jerk immediately toward reopening. Sorry if it came off that way my man!

We’re on the same page!

[bens197]

Heck there are so many people from New York in PA right now it is kind of irritating because they are all from NYC. Sorry Ben but those idiots are coming here because they want to be tested. If you aren't being tested in your own area why go to another and possibly spread it to more people? The lack of thinking and the amount of selfishness I still see bothers me.

Don’t be sorry, I’ve been reading your posts and I agree 100%. It’s frustrating to see and you’re well within your rights to feel that way.