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10 hours ago, HardcoreLooper said:

The circle you drew is not on the tee box.  If it were, I'd stand at the right edge of your circle and have plenty of room to aim left of the center of my dispersion but far enough right that a "normal" pull or alignment problem wouldn't put me in the tree.  The tee is uncomfortably far to the left and it brings the tree into play for a fader.  

The tree makes the hole.

If I could hit driver over the tree, or if I felt comfortable drawing the driver, it wouldn't be an issue.  The left trees aren't that penal.  The right trees aren't that penal.  There's an easy 65+ yards left of the penalty area if the tree isn't in play for you off the tee.

I see what you're saying about starting the ball just to the right of the cart path, but a pull is going to put me into the tree.  It's in the left side of my dispersion.  I wish I never hit a Thurman Munson, but I usually hit one a round.  I shot 75 on Father's Day and hit one.  But the hole was plenty wide, my aim point was good, I hit the ball into the rough, and had a chance to hit the green.  I missed the green and made bogey, but the tee shot didn't kill me and neither did the bogey.

If I could fit the ball into 50-ish yards side to side with a driver, I'd be a much, much better player than I am.  

I think you have provided a lot more clarification of the hole description in your recent posts.  The risks have to be evaluated with your skill to execute a shot, and you have to commit to the shot you pick.  Sounds like you have already decided on the layup shot.  Others have different skills and may take on the hole in a different manner.  I can fit the ball into 50-ish yards with my driver.  I'm hitting driver all the time on this hole, but it's still a layup shot!  

The only poor decision is to try to execute a shot that you know will result in a bad situation an unacceptable percentage of the time, or not committing to the shot you choose.

"If I could fit the ball into 50-ish yards side to side with a driver, I'd be a much, much better player than I am."    BTW,  If I could hit the ball 240-250 yards with a driver, I'd be a much, much better player than I am.  🤣

If IFs and BUTs were candy and nuts, we'd all have a wonderful Christmas.

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We don’t stop playing the game because we get old; we get old because we stop playing the game.”

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Posted (edited)

My feeling is to take a hybrid Or wood and short of trouble. You can still get to the green on the 2nd shot I always want to play for the better angle even if I’m 20-50 yards shorter 

My pattern is a right to left and if I feel I am driving into trouble I will take a short club. 
For me if the trouble at past 250 yards was left would take a shorter club. 
But if trouble was right like this hole, I take out the Driver out as I generally not have problems OB right 
 

Edited by Haro
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On 7/1/2021 at 7:57 AM, cnosil said:

The difference isn’t a negative mindset or even something really done on a tee box.  Most of us are making a plan on the line and club before we even get to the course based on expectation management and what provides the best chance to avoid bogey or worse.

That's the key.  I play better when I have a game plan in advance.  If have a strategy for the hole that I trust, then I can hit the tee shot with some commitment.  And if I hit an awful tee shot, I can let it go, because it was a bad swing and we all make bad swings.  But at least the game plan was solid.

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What's in the bag:
Driver - :cobra-small: F8 - Aldila NV Blue 60 ( S )
3 Wood (16*) - :cobra-small: F8 - Aldila NV Blue 60 ( S )
3 Hybrid (19*) - :taylormade-small: RBZ
4i - PW - :wilson_staff_small: D7 Forged - Recoil 760 ( S )
GW - LW - :cobra-small: F8 - N.S. Pro Modus3 Tour105 ( S )
Putter - :ping-small: Craz-e
Bag - :1590477705_SunMountain: 2.5 (Black)
Ball -  :taylormade-small: TP5X Pix
Instagram - @hardcorelooper
Twitter - @meovino
Facebook - mike.eovino

 

 

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On 7/1/2021 at 9:13 AM, Kenny B said:

I think you have provided a lot more clarification of the hole description in your recent posts.  The risks have to be evaluated with your skill to execute a shot, and you have to commit to the shot you pick.  Sounds like you have already decided on the layup shot.

Yeah, if I start another one of these topics, I'll be sure to be more descriptive.  And based on what I've learned here; I'll be hitting the hybrid tomorrow.

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What's in the bag:
Driver - :cobra-small: F8 - Aldila NV Blue 60 ( S )
3 Wood (16*) - :cobra-small: F8 - Aldila NV Blue 60 ( S )
3 Hybrid (19*) - :taylormade-small: RBZ
4i - PW - :wilson_staff_small: D7 Forged - Recoil 760 ( S )
GW - LW - :cobra-small: F8 - N.S. Pro Modus3 Tour105 ( S )
Putter - :ping-small: Craz-e
Bag - :1590477705_SunMountain: 2.5 (Black)
Ball -  :taylormade-small: TP5X Pix
Instagram - @hardcorelooper
Twitter - @meovino
Facebook - mike.eovino

 

 

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4 minutes ago, HardcoreLooper said:

Yeah, if I start another one of these topics, I'll be sure to be more descriptive.  And based on what I've learned here; I'll be hitting the hybrid tomorrow.

You got this!!  Let us know how it turned out.

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We don’t stop playing the game because we get old; we get old because we stop playing the game.”

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  • 2 weeks later...

Sorry it's been a while since I posted.

First off - The tree is gone.  I know, all that agonizing, and the tree is gone.  The satellite imagery is pretty old (from before the renovation).  I'd played the hole so many times with the tree there that I just assumed it was still there when I pulled up Google Earth.

I've played the hole twice since 7/2.  The first time, I hit the 3 hybrid, just to try it.  I was hooking everything that day, and I snapped one straight into the left trees.  I didn't have an angle at the green, but I was able to punch it out pin high and right of the green.  I left myself a manageable chip, but I didn't hit it that well and made bogey.

The second time I played it, I'd snapped the shaft on my driver a few holes prior (it just gave way right after impact), so I hit 3 wood (cranked down to 13 degrees) and hooked that (I'm now hooking just about everything) just into the left trees.  I was able to punch-hook that just over the green for an easy par.

Thanks to everyone for all the help!

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What's in the bag:
Driver - :cobra-small: F8 - Aldila NV Blue 60 ( S )
3 Wood (16*) - :cobra-small: F8 - Aldila NV Blue 60 ( S )
3 Hybrid (19*) - :taylormade-small: RBZ
4i - PW - :wilson_staff_small: D7 Forged - Recoil 760 ( S )
GW - LW - :cobra-small: F8 - N.S. Pro Modus3 Tour105 ( S )
Putter - :ping-small: Craz-e
Bag - :1590477705_SunMountain: 2.5 (Black)
Ball -  :taylormade-small: TP5X Pix
Instagram - @hardcorelooper
Twitter - @meovino
Facebook - mike.eovino

 

 

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7 hours ago, HardcoreLooper said:

Sorry it's been a while since I posted.

First off - The tree is gone.  I know, all that agonizing, and the tree is gone.  The satellite imagery is pretty old (from before the renovation).  I'd played the hole so many times with the tree there that I just assumed it was still there when I pulled up Google Earth.

I've played the hole twice since 7/2.  The first time, I hit the 3 hybrid, just to try it.  I was hooking everything that day, and I snapped one straight into the left trees.  I didn't have an angle at the green, but I was able to punch it out pin high and right of the green.  I left myself a manageable chip, but I didn't hit it that well and made bogey.

The second time I played it, I'd snapped the shaft on my driver a few holes prior (it just gave way right after impact), so I hit 3 wood (cranked down to 13 degrees) and hooked that (I'm now hooking just about everything) just into the left trees.  I was able to punch-hook that just over the green for an easy par.

Thanks to everyone for all the help!

It just goes to show, poor execution usually overwhelms even the best planning.  But as you said, the shots from the left trees are manageable, not too punitive, which expands your "acceptable" zone in that direction.

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:titelist-small: Irons Titleist AP2 714, KBS Tour S, 3 flat

:callaway-small: Rogue SubZero, GD YS-Six X

:vokey-small: 52, 56, and 60 wedges

:ping-small: B60 G5i putter

Right handed

Reston, Virginia

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31 minutes ago, DaveP043 said:

It just goes to show, poor execution usually overwhelms even the best planning.  But as you said, the shots from the left trees are manageable, not too punitive, which expands your "acceptable" zone in that direction.

Exactly.  And considering that while I was playing pretty poorly both days, I managed to play it +1.  So I definitely minimized the damage.

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What's in the bag:
Driver - :cobra-small: F8 - Aldila NV Blue 60 ( S )
3 Wood (16*) - :cobra-small: F8 - Aldila NV Blue 60 ( S )
3 Hybrid (19*) - :taylormade-small: RBZ
4i - PW - :wilson_staff_small: D7 Forged - Recoil 760 ( S )
GW - LW - :cobra-small: F8 - N.S. Pro Modus3 Tour105 ( S )
Putter - :ping-small: Craz-e
Bag - :1590477705_SunMountain: 2.5 (Black)
Ball -  :taylormade-small: TP5X Pix
Instagram - @hardcorelooper
Twitter - @meovino
Facebook - mike.eovino

 

 

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1 hour ago, HardcoreLooper said:

Exactly.  And considering that while I was playing pretty poorly both days, I managed to play it +1.  So I definitely minimized the damage.

A question comes to mind, if you had been as far right as you were left, could you have been in the Penalty Area?  

:titelist-small: Irons Titleist AP2 714, KBS Tour S, 3 flat

:callaway-small: Rogue SubZero, GD YS-Six X

:vokey-small: 52, 56, and 60 wedges

:ping-small: B60 G5i putter

Right handed

Reston, Virginia

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13 hours ago, DaveP043 said:

A question comes to mind, if you had been as far right as you were left, could you have been in the Penalty Area?  

I'm going from memory here, but I'd say yes.  What I really can't remember is if I can hit a straight push into the penalty area, or if that gets knocked down by the trees.  A push-fade definitely puts me in the PA.

What's in the bag:
Driver - :cobra-small: F8 - Aldila NV Blue 60 ( S )
3 Wood (16*) - :cobra-small: F8 - Aldila NV Blue 60 ( S )
3 Hybrid (19*) - :taylormade-small: RBZ
4i - PW - :wilson_staff_small: D7 Forged - Recoil 760 ( S )
GW - LW - :cobra-small: F8 - N.S. Pro Modus3 Tour105 ( S )
Putter - :ping-small: Craz-e
Bag - :1590477705_SunMountain: 2.5 (Black)
Ball -  :taylormade-small: TP5X Pix
Instagram - @hardcorelooper
Twitter - @meovino
Facebook - mike.eovino

 

 

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To me, the more important question is:

What are your most accurate approach clubs?

:titelist-small: 915 D3 driver, TS2 21° 3-Hy

:ping-small: :Arccos: G425 5-PW + LW

:adams-small: Idea a7 SW & GW

:odyssey-small: O-Works #7 putter

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Interesting decision here.  Green is 18yds wide and 23yds deep.

From the left side FW bunker, you have 165yds to the center of the green (a 185yd shot off the tee).  That is probably too far to lay back.  If you can safely fit that 220yd shot into what looks to be 46yds of useable area consistently, then that is probably your play as you take a 135yd shot into the green.

The driver with the hazard on the right adds scores up quickly for not much gained (you're talking a tenth of  a stroke on the PGA tour when splitting 50/50 rough/fairway).  Obviously without the hazard there, driver is the play as the expected strokes gained with 50/50 rough/fairway is lower than the same scenario from 30yds back with a lower big score risk.  If you didn't have to start your driver so far to the right of those trees you can't carry, then you might reduce the number of balls in the penalty area enough to make it worth it.

example hole.jpg 

Instagram:  @tony_rosselli_

Twitter: @GolfSpy_CS

:SuperSpeed:Training

Pre training max driver speed: 124mph

Current: 130mph

WITB:

Driver: :ping-small:G400 LST 8.5* with HZRDUS SMOKE 6.5 70g 

Woods: :taylormade-small: 2007 Burner TP 3 wood and 5 wood

Irons:  :srixon-small: Z765 4-PW (1 degree flat) with KBS $-130 shafts

Wedges:  :vokey-small: SM7 50/12/F, 54/10/S and 58/12/D

Putter: 681811256_Odysseylogo.png.499799aea6663befa411c8db1d859702.png Stroke Lab Ten S 33"

Ball:  :taylormade-small: 2019 TP5X

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Chace the ace.jpg

148yd shot trying to make a hole in one.  Wedge or 9 iron for these guys.  50 balls each, on the tee box.  Same shot over and over.  Left to right dispersion is 32yds.   Due to longer nature of tee balls with driver, dispersion is expected to be wider.

Broadie's 'Every Shot Counts' and Scott Fawcett's data, Lou Stagner, our own Ed Teer, driver dispersion is bigger than we think.  They all recommend ~65yds as a good estimate.  Do pros hit it tighter than that more often, yes, but the big misses do happen and they can cause blowup scores if you don't plan for them to some degree.

From some of Fawcett's stuff:

PGA Tour driving shot pattern.jpg

The charts that @cnosilposted of DJ, Bryson, and Todd's dispersion should clearly demonstrate that big misses do happen to the highest of skilled golfers.

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Instagram:  @tony_rosselli_

Twitter: @GolfSpy_CS

:SuperSpeed:Training

Pre training max driver speed: 124mph

Current: 130mph

WITB:

Driver: :ping-small:G400 LST 8.5* with HZRDUS SMOKE 6.5 70g 

Woods: :taylormade-small: 2007 Burner TP 3 wood and 5 wood

Irons:  :srixon-small: Z765 4-PW (1 degree flat) with KBS $-130 shafts

Wedges:  :vokey-small: SM7 50/12/F, 54/10/S and 58/12/D

Putter: 681811256_Odysseylogo.png.499799aea6663befa411c8db1d859702.png Stroke Lab Ten S 33"

Ball:  :taylormade-small: 2019 TP5X

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  • 2 weeks later...

Seems like you have it sorted out, but I think my approach for this hole will be dependent on pin placement.

For a pin tucked back and left, I'd take aim at the first greenside bunker on the left with a driver. You should have low yardage into the green, so with a higher lofted wedge you should have the height or spin to stop the ball on a tucked pin.

If the pin is on the middle, front, or right, I'd go with the same aim point, but with the 3 hybrid, where you might have a longer club in but with a more accessible pin.

With either approach, if you're playing a cut, you'll be in a great place and if you're drawing, you won't be as penalized (per your ability to get out of trouble from those trees).

Current as of 2021:

Titleist 913D2 9.5* Diamana 70S | Titleist 917F2 17* Diamana 60R | Mizuno MP-60 S300 (3-PW) | Vokey SM5 52* (playing 53*) and 58* | Odyssey Black Series Tour Design No. 5 | Bridgestone Tour B XS

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