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I took at AimPoint class yesterday with Jake Sandusky. Great class, great teacher, highly recommended for anyone in Chicago or Dallas (he travels between the two).

 

Anyway, this gave me a reason to poke around the AimPoint website and I found this fun little Score Predictor tool:

 

http://www.aimpointgolf.com/score.html

 

It's based on Mark Sweeney's research and provides some very interesting insights.

 

To me, the most interesting thing is the "Go For It's" which mean how often do you go for the green in 2 on Par 5's. I may be butchering this (I've only just skimmed his comments in the AimPoint forum), but I think that what he's saying is that, as a rule, if you lay up, your expected score goes up. I'm sure this is going to cause a lot head shaking, but I thought it was interesting.


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That's a pretty cool tool.

 

I'm interested to see some of the guys from the stat tracking thread put there info in and see if it's working for them.


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That's a pretty cool tool.

 

I'm interested to see some of the guys from the stat tracking thread put there info in and see if it's working for them.

Interesting tool. I wonder if it differentiates between conditions in going for it in two, such as a very short par five where you can hit driver 5 iron, or a longer one which would take driver 3 wood.



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Interesting tool. I wonder if it differentiates between conditions in going for it in two, such as a very short par five where you can hit driver 5 iron, or a longer one which would take driver 3 wood.

 

I expect that it's all been accounted for and averaged out; I doubt this is something he just slapped up there without thinking through.

 

Here's another interesting aspect of this: driving distance only accounts for 1% of the score prediction, but the Go For Its are 3%. However, driving distance obviously plays a large role in whether or not you can Go For It...though in most cases you need to be both long and fairly straight to Go For It. It seems that he's saying (or the numbers are saying) that if you're long and you don't go for it, you're wasting your drive.


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Based on my statistics, this score prediction tool is accurate. It predicts my average score within less than half a stroke. I have exact stats for each category except driving distance and "go for its". Those two only comprise 4% of the total so it doesn't matter too much how you change those estimates. Here are my averages for 31 rounds since July 1st this year.

 

Driving Distance - Estimated at 230 yards.

Driving Accuracy - 82.6%

GIR - 53.9%

Scrambling - 42.9% (I calculate this as par saves... the percentage of time I save par after missing the green.)

Go For Its - I just left the estimate at 50%. I almost never reach a par 5 in two. But I hit a 3-wood second shot maybe 50% of the time. (For statistical purposes maybe I'm still laying up. See note below)

Putting - 1.88 (This is my average putts on GIR.)

Putts per round - 31.03

 

My scoring average for those 31 rounds is 75.68 (Par 71 for 4.68 over par). Put those stats in the calculator and it gives a score of 4.3 over or 75.3 on a par 71. Note: If I drop the Go for It's to zero which is probably correct on the course I play, it gives +4.59 which is very close to my exact average.

 

According to the calculator GIR and the two putting stats account for 81% of scoring. Maybe someone else can pull up stats from the PGA Tour website to check the accuracy for a touring pro.

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Based on my statistics, this score prediction tool is accurate. It predicts my average score within less than half a stroke. I have exact stats for each category except driving distance and "go for its". Those two only comprise 4% of the total so it doesn't matter too much how you change those estimates. Here are my averages for 31 rounds since July 1st this year.

 

Driving Distance - Estimated at 230 yards.

Driving Accuracy - 82.6%

GIR - 53.9%

Scrambling - 42.9% (I calculate this as par saves... the percentage of time I save par after missing the green.)

Go For Its - I just left the estimate at 50%. I almost never reach a par 5 in two. But I hit a 3-wood second shot maybe 50% of the time. (For statistical purposes maybe I'm still laying up. See note below)

Putting - 1.88 (This is my average putts on GIR.)

Putts per round - 31.03

 

My scoring average for those 31 rounds is 75.68 (Par 71 for 4.68 over par). Put those stats in the calculator and it gives a score of 4.3 over or 75.3 on a par 71. Note: If I drop the Go for It's to zero which is probably correct on the course I play, it gives +4.59 which is very close to my exact average.

 

According to the calculator GIR and the two putting stats account for 81% of scoring. Maybe someone else can pull up stats from the PGA Tour website to check the accuracy for a touring pro.

 

Thanks for putting in your info Will. I'm absolutely fascinated with this tool. I'm amazed that it can be such a good predictor.

 

I'm also starting to think of it in reverse. Like taking me at a 6 or 7 handicap and asking how many more GIR or how many less putt/round do I need to have to lower my score.

 

Also since those two stats account for such a high percentage of the score I may need to rethink my area's of practice. Instead of chipping/pitching I really need to work on approach distance shots. Say 100-160. If I can hit more greens it will have a much higher chance of lowering my score than by getting up and down more often. No surprises about the importance of putting though.


Driver: :callaway-logo-1: Epic SZ w/ VA Composites Raijin 65 04

3w: :taylormade-small:'16 M2 hl w/ Diamana D+ 82

5w: :cleveland-small: Launcher HB w/ HZRDUS Yellow

Hybrid: :cleveland-small: 22 deg. Launcher HB w/ HZRDUS Black

Irons: :ping-small: 5i-UW G700 w/ X100 soft stepped once

Wedges: :cleveland-small: 54 & 58 CBX w/ Nippon Modus 3 125

Putter: :odyssey-small: Red 7s

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Also since those two stats account for such a high percentage of the score I may need to rethink my area's of practice. Instead of chipping/pitching I really need to work on approach distance shots. Say 100-160. If I can hit more greens it will have a much higher chance of lowering my score than by getting up and down more often. No surprises about the importance of putting though.

 

I may have to disagree a bit here, Hckymeyer. I would say the number is less than 160, however, there should really be no difference in swinging a full 5 iron and swinging a full pitching wedge. When I am striking my irons well, I do not hit that many more greens with the PW than the 7i. Unfortunately, right now, well, until today, I was not hitting it with any full club. I did today.

 

Chipping/pitching is not only crutial to save a par when you miss the green, it is the best way to make a birdie on a par 5's. Realistically, on a par 5 you are going to have to hit a long iron, hybrid, or FM into the green and you will have very little control over it. There is typically a lot of trouble by the green in the form of bunkers and mogals and rough. By hitting to a place on in the fairway that gives you an ideal lay up than you give yourself the best opportunity for a birdie there if you can C/P and putt.

 

I have found that when I score low 70's and occasionally high 60's, (shot 74 today) it is because I saved a lot of pars when missing the green not necessarily made a lot of birdies. I did make a lot of birdies today. I often make two or three per round but made 6 today because of a honeymoon period with a new putter and a few great pitches. On just about every course I have played, I can usually get inside 100 yards on all par 5's in two and typically 2 or 3 of the par 4's after a good drive. I did this today on birdied all par 5's and birdied 2 of the par 4's. I also double bogied one par 4 from 85 yards but that is not the point after a 290 yard drive (with the wind) down the middle.

 

While in theory hitting the green from 100-160 does give you more birdie opportunities, none of the birdies today came from the 100 to 160 range, and if I am honest they rarely do come from that range. On all the par 3's and a couple of par 4's after the drive, I was on the green or putting from the fringe from those ranges but those were all two putt pars. If I could have pitched better on 4 holes (and except for those four pitches my short game was on fire,) and just saved a bogey instead of double bogey I would have shot under par today in a 25 mph wind.

 

Wind and conditions certainly played a factor today. But none of the double bogies I had were from penalties. So poor iron play was not the culprit. Two bad putts and two bad pitches lead to what I consider a higher than it should have been score.

 

Certainly, a GIR is important, but unless you are playing par golf already, being able to scramble and get up and down will save more strokes than increasing one or two GIR per round.


 

Driver:      :mizuno-small:  ST190G on Fujikura ATMOS Black

Fairway:   :mizuno-small:  ST190TS 15° on Fujikura ATMOS Black

Hybrids     :mizuno-small:  CLK 22 & 25 (set to 20° & 23°) on Fujikura SPEEDER

Irons:     :mizuno-small:  MP5 5-P on True Temper Dynamic Gold

Wedges: :mizuno-small: MP-T5 52*, 56* & 60* on True Temper Dynamic Gold Wedge

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Range Finder: Precision Pro  NX7 Pro

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Certainly, a GIR is important, but unless you are playing par golf already, being able to scramble and get up and down will save more strokes than increasing one or two GIR per round.

 

I knew this tool would stir discussion.

 

I have to disagree with you about the above quote, RR. As Mark Sweeney said (paraphrasing): a GIR is nearly a guaranteed par. Let's assume you're a very good scrambler and you save par 50% of the time (very unrealistic for most); in that case a GIR saves you half a stroke.

 

Ultimately, the problem with anyone being "right" about this is that we can be talking about different players. A player who hits 4-5 GIRs needs to hit more greens. Someone who gets up and down once in a blue moon needs to work on chipping and putting. It's all about knowing what's holding back your individual game.


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I personally think that GIR is a bit overrated as a stat, while it gives you an idea of your ball striking prowess that particular round, if I leave a 60 foot putt versus a straightforward chip from just off the green, I like the chances of making the chip or getting it up and in from that circumstance than a 60 footer that may have multiple breaks or up/down hill parts of it. Yet the missed green by a yard or two hurts the GIR percentage even if I have a better chance of making par from that scenario.


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I have a feeling that all of those different scenario's were taken into account when the tool was made. It has to be based off of averages, so there will always be outlying situations that say it should be one way or the other.

 

Regarding the GIR vs Scrambling discussion. This really seems like a "Chicken and the egg" discussion. If you were great at scrambling you would save strokes, however if you were on the green to begin with you wouldn't have to scramble.

 

Matt makes a great point about knowing the strengths and weaknesses of your game. I know I'm not the best scrambler, I'm also not the highest in GIR. I was just saying that it was pretty eye opening how much importance is places on the GIR stat. And because it's so high, it seems like that would be one of the easier places to get better.

 

So my argument to RR would be, If I can hit a green, then I don't have to worry about getting up and down to begin with.


Driver: :callaway-logo-1: Epic SZ w/ VA Composites Raijin 65 04

3w: :taylormade-small:'16 M2 hl w/ Diamana D+ 82

5w: :cleveland-small: Launcher HB w/ HZRDUS Yellow

Hybrid: :cleveland-small: 22 deg. Launcher HB w/ HZRDUS Black

Irons: :ping-small: 5i-UW G700 w/ X100 soft stepped once

Wedges: :cleveland-small: 54 & 58 CBX w/ Nippon Modus 3 125

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Interesting to think that GIRs are overrated. Hard to make birdies without GIRs. Par is a lot more work, too.

 

I think any given stat from a particular round could be unreliable: you could thin the ball into 8 greens and I could hit every shot flush and miss every green 1 yard right. Over a larger sample, though, GIRs are reflective of the quality of your ball striking.

 

I think the 60 foot putt vs. simple chip may have more to do with course management than GIRs/ball striking.


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Interesting to think that GIRs are overrated. Hard to make birdies without GIRs. Par is a lot more work, too.

 

I think any given stat from a particular round could be unreliable: you could thin the ball into 8 greens and I could hit every shot flush and miss every green 1 yard right. Over a larger sample, though, GIRs are reflective of the quality of your ball striking.

 

I think the 60 foot putt vs. simple chip may have more to do with course management than GIRs/ball striking.

 

I agree with the overall importance and relevance of the GIR stat, I just feel that if I hit a shot poorly and slide a foot onto the green versus hitting one pure that carries a yard too far, it can make the stat a little misleading. All in all, it is important to hit your target, but sometimes missing smaller can be better.


Ping G410 Plus Oban Kiyoshi Tour Limited
Ping G410 LST 3 Wood Oban Tour Prototype V430
Titleist U500 3 & 4 Oban Kiyoshi Purple Tour Reserve
Titleist 620 MB 5-9 Oban CT 125
Titleist Vokey 47* Oban CT 125, 51*, 55*, and 59* Shimada Tour Wedge Black
Bettinardi Studio Stock SS28

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I am eating crow tonight about the GIR vs scrambling. For the record, I prepared it with cheese, sour cream, picante on flour tortilla. Crow fajitas. Tastes just like chicken fajitas. I went to the course today, because it was too hot 77* not to go. I took my advice on another thread and revisited my fundamental and my iron striking was right on.

 

Today's stats.

 

Driving Distance - 244 yards.

Driving Accuracy - 79%

GIR - 66.6%

Scrambling - 40% (lower than normal, but GIR are way up.)

Go For Its - 100% Now, I only reached one par 5 in two and made an eagle. So I went to 100%.

Putting - 1.3 The problem is this is below the min. on the scale.

Putts per round - 27

 

I am on a honeymoon period with a new putter I got on Saturday. I was on fire with it yesterday and today. Yesterday I made 6 birdies and four double bogies. Today, I eagled the par 5 fifth with two great shots and a nice 15 foot putt. Then had a good round going, even par, but nothing spectacular until 9. I made a 75'er while just trying to get it in the same zip code of the hole. I was shocked when it tracked to the hole and fell in. From that point I made the following putts, 25', 8', 4' 45' for birdies and a 12' for par. After a bogey on 15 I had a 6'er for birdie on 17. I shot a 68. Not my best score ever, but close enough to make me happy. Four bogies, 6 birdies and an eagle.

 

I am eating crow because obviously if I was not hitting the GIR, I would not be putting to make the bird. I fully realize that I could go back and place the ball in the same place on all the greens and make the ones I missed and miss the ones I made and was extremely lucky the way those long putts were dropping, and the one for 45' was just stupid. I was on a different level and it broke 10 feet to the right and then another 2 feet to the left and tracked to the hole. The guys I was playing with were as shocked as I was. It tracked to the hole like it was GPS guided. However, I do admit at that point I got in my own was and turned an 6' downhill birdie on the next hole into a 12' uphill par. And totally screwed up the next hole. I was so far below par I got nerveous and started playing not to bogey. But that is a different thread.

 

It appears that my scrambling numbers were down from normal but that is because the GIR were up. Twice errant drives left me where I was was darned happy to walk off with a bogey.

 

So while I was incredibly lucky with the putts and made some I probably should not have hoped to make and missed some I should have made, they would not have been putts had I not been on the green. And since I have only been below 68 on three other occasions I can say it does not get much lower than that.


 

Driver:      :mizuno-small:  ST190G on Fujikura ATMOS Black

Fairway:   :mizuno-small:  ST190TS 15° on Fujikura ATMOS Black

Hybrids     :mizuno-small:  CLK 22 & 25 (set to 20° & 23°) on Fujikura SPEEDER

Irons:     :mizuno-small:  MP5 5-P on True Temper Dynamic Gold

Wedges: :mizuno-small: MP-T5 52*, 56* & 60* on True Temper Dynamic Gold Wedge

Putter:    :cameron-small: 2018 Select Newport 2

Balls:      :titelist-small: Pro V1X

Shoes:     :footjoy-small:

Range Finder: Precision Pro  NX7 Pro

All grips are BestGrips Micro-Perforated

 

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