Statistics of probability

[Kor.A.Door]

Does anyone else check into these types of things? I read forums, and threads all around and I see the posted HCP's of users, and then as I read some of the posts I see that they will say I shot in the 60's or low 70's or even par, and then I see the hcp, and I wonder statistically what is the probability of that happening, so I look it up a bit, I play to around 6 hcp, statistically speaking it shows that for me to shoot even par, the odds are 536:1, if I were to shoot under par, that number triples, meaning that if I shoot even par, I probably cheated to do so, has anyone else checked into this stuff, I know it comes up more when tournaments are involved with sandbagged re and such, but I don't like reading about the guy who has a 6 handicap, but shot in the 60's, it's not really possible for that to happen, if we are going to post these types of things, let's be honest about our actual hcp, or actual scores. This goes for all sites as far as I am concerned.

I'm not trying to put anyone down or anything just curious if anyone else looks at those things and says, hmmm.

[hckymeyer]

All the time.  Same thing for guys driving it 300+.

 

I pretty much take everything with a grain of salt, also not everyone keeps a true handicap or updates their signature with each revision.  

[Undershooter]

All the time. Same thing for guys driving it 300+.

 

I pretty much take everything with a grain of salt, also not everyone keeps a true handicap or updates their signature with each revision.

 

Well I'm part of the problem on both sides I suppose lol

 

With that said it's probably bc I'm lazy and haven't updated my handicap on here since I made my account. I'm not a 5 handicap unless you only count my worst month or 2 of the year.

Sorry I'm lazy Lol. Also this is the internet so take everything with a grain of salt.

[Bogey in The Woods]

All the time.  Same thing for guys driving it 300+.

 

 

But i do drive 300 yards EVERYTIME i play at Bluebonnet Hill. Thats about how how far i drive from the main road to turn into the course and get to the parkinglot. Once I get out of the Tahoe, I wont see 300 again until I leave the course.....

[Kenny B]

I won't get into the details of the HCP discussion because it's was discussed quite a bit last year. The system has flaws but it works OK if people are honest. It's an indication of potential; it doesn't mean that if you are a 5 that you will consistently shoot 5 over par.

 

However, I can also see where someone could go low on certain courses, depending on the set of tees they use and the quality of the course rating and slope. Here's my example:

 

When I joined MGS, I was an 8.7 HCP because I posted scores from my home "practice" course. I don't do that now because the course does not reflect a typical course. It is a 9-hole executive course with a par 5 and two par 3's. I don't trust the course raters on this one. I can easily shoot even par, and for a few years I had the course record for 9-holes at -4. Now I only practice there or have social rounds with friends.

 

I had my left knee replaced 18 months ago, and when I started playing again last year, I only recorded scores at other courses. My HCP started at 14 and I got it down to 11.2 when GHIN closed last fall. So, I guess I'm lazy and should change my HCP, but I had hoped to get it back down because I had made improvements in the short game last year. I think I will wait a month or two to see if winter practice helped.

 

I guess when someone says that they shot even par or better, maybe we should ask "That's great! What course and what tees did you play?

[Kor.A.Door]

I want to say to, that I'm not talking about specific people, just all the groups in all the forums as a whole. I also understand that HCP is not actual and it is potential (what you could shoot), when you read aBout someone shooting in the 60's and having a posted 6-7 hcp , I think that's bull, it's not that's 1 in like 85000. That's 1 out of 85000 rounds of golf for that individual. I understand completely about not updating the hcp all the time. I just sometimes look at this and just scratch my head.

[revkev]

Mmmmmmbuddy posted a great chart on handicap and score probability. I can't recall what thread it was on but it was in the last year or so.

 

Much like the 300 yard drive there are a variety of possibilities with the number one possibility being that the person sincerely believes that he or she shot a round in the 60's just like he be

I eves he hits a 300 yard drive. Here's how... It's a casual round, mulligan on 1 and somewhere else along the line leads to par and birdie instead of double and bogey. Four or five give me's are taken on missable putts when the friend playing partner says, "pick it up." 75 turns into 69 very quickly that way and the person sincerely believes he shot 69.

 

It's just like the guy on the 440 yard hole who has 140 and says, "I hit it 300!" Well no, the tees were up 20 yards ad you cut the dogleg, you actually hit it 265 (exceedingly far) but this guy believes he hit it 300.

 

So you may be frustrated by the scores you see but it may be tough to convince anyone on a forum that they didn't break par because in their mind those gimmes weren't 3 footers.

[DaveP043]

I've shot rounds of 2 under par twice, the first one about 6 or 7 years ago, the second just last summer.  Neither was on a pushover course, but I knew both courses pretty well I always enter my scores for handicap, and vary from a low of 3.8 to a high of around 7.  I play on the order of 70 to 80 rounds a year.  I'm not sure exactly what the USGA says the odds should be, but that frequency of really outstanding scores seems pretty reasonable to me.

The statement that amuses me is "I always play to my handicap".  The way the handicap calculation is set up, you should only be at NET par or better about 25 to 30% of the time, and your average score should be a few strokes over NET par.  If you always play to your handicap, you're not posting your scores.

[westy]

The U.S. handicap system seems to be better in some ways, than the UK one, and in others not so good.

 

In the UK At the yearly handicap review, statutory at each club in order for handicaps to be valid, anyone who shoots their handicap or below an unusual amount (which is in considered to be roughly 1 in 4) will have their handicap checked. Potentially up as well as down.

 

A handicap is your potential, not what you will score every time. That's why the probabilities of me, playing of 5, shooting level par are not that high. It might happen, but if it did a few times out of every 10 rounds then my handicap should be lower.

 

We also have an additional factor where if a player shoots multiple scores well below hcp in a short period (for 6 hcps and above) they can have their hcp reduced faster. So 2 years ago I went from 9 to 6 in a month because of two rounds in the low 70's.

 

The review system helps spot anyone chucking in ugly scores to inflate handicaps. Do you have something similar?

 

In the UK social rounds can count towards handicaps, but only for 6hcps and above and only 10 per year - all the rest must be in competition. 5 hcps and below can only change handicaps in competition (aside from up to 3 additional scores that may be played between October and March in the event a player hasn't played enough events to keep their hcp active). Complex? Yep. Frankly it's aPHD subject handicapping and once you build in Slope, SSS and CSS it's time for a stiff drink.

[Undershooter]

Agree with Rev's post a lot. There is a BIG difference between a casual 69 and a 69 in competition.

 

Also this isn't totally relevant but thought I would add. At my home course there is "a men's group game" that takes place every Sunday, Monday,Thursday and Saturday. Its is done by random teams with stableford scoring. You have to get points per your handicap. So a 5 would need 31 points and a scratch would need 36 etc. Team with most points above handicap wins the money. If you score positive points they move up your handicap and negative moves it down. Our course rating and slope would put me around a 2 handicap most of the year but no chance I would play as a 2 in the men's game unless I was on my best game of the year. That would mean my average round would have to be 74 on a not so easy course. I'm not sure why I posted all this but just wanted to share something that we like to do for a money game. Haha

[Undershooter]

Also I'm not sure if this is the chart you were referring to Rev but it may be relevant.

http://www.usga.org/playing/handicaps/understanding_handicap/articles/deanstable.html

[revkev]

Westy each club or group is supposed to have a handicap chair that checks scores/handicaps etc. but I don't know how effective that is.  I suspect that Kor A Door is dubious of scoring claims made on the variety of forums that he is a participant on based upon the listed handicap.  I'm guessing he's seeing a trend of reverse sandbagging. 

 

I wanted to point out that there was an explanation to his concern that went beyond blatant lying - I play a combination of casual golf (from November to March) and competitive golf - April through October - the rounds are radically different - no doubt I will post a score in the how did you play thread that was in a casual round - anymore I try to make that distinction there because once someone says to you, "Pick it up," it becomes different from playing a round in competition where even a tap in will be missed at some point - just ask Hale Irwin.

 

I think lots of people on forums post scores from their casual rounds and don't think twice about it - that's fine - its a forum but its also why sometimes they are surprised when they go to compete and they don't seem to ever shoot their handicap -

[DaveP043]

>

 

I have no doubt that this is absolutely true.  If a player wants to compete effectively, he should try to make his casual rounds as much like real competition as possible, putting out, playing by the rules, all of that.  On the other side, he should try to make his competition rounds as much like a casual round as possible, relax, enjoy the day, savor the fun, all to decrease the feeling of pressure.  I'm still working on that part of my game, dealing with self-imposed pressure, and I expect I'll be working on it until I can't pick up a club anymore.

[DaveP043]

Oh, and to follow-up on Undershooter's post, you can read more about the origin of those tables at:

http://popeofslope.com/sandbagging/procedure.html

Looking at the big equation made my head start to hurt, so I gave up.  

 

One thing I did take away was that the part of the USGA handicap system that deals with low tournament scores essentially starts with the assumption that "rare" occurrences really don't occur.  If tournament net scores look too unusually low, its not thought to be a true rarity, but a fault with the handicap.  Consequently, the handicap is adjusted, bringing the net tournament scores within their definition of "reasonable rarity," which I think is defined as about 1 in 250.

[MmmmmmBuddy]

Mmmmmmbuddy posted a great chart on handicap and score probability. I can't recall what thread it was on but it was in the last year or so.

 

Much like the 300 yard drive there are a variety of possibilities with the number one possibility being that the person sincerely believes that he or she shot a round in the 60's just like he be

I eves he hits a 300 yard drive. Here's how... It's a casual round, mulligan on 1 and somewhere else along the line leads to par and birdie instead of double and bogey. Four or five give me's are taken on missable putts when the friend playing partner says, "pick it up." 75 turns into 69 very quickly that way and the person sincerely believes he shot 69.

 

It's just like the guy on the 440 yard hole who has 140 and says, "I hit it 300!" Well no, the tees were up 20 yards ad you cut the dogleg, you actually hit it 265 (exceedingly far) but this guy believes he hit it 300.

 

So you may be frustrated by the scores you see but it may be tough to convince anyone on a forum that they didn't break par because in their mind those gimmes weren't 3 footers.

That thread is here

 

Dang it.. Now I'm all heated up about handicaps...  again.

[westy]

Just read that link for the third time - that's the simple version? And we wonder why golf is a bit inaccessible?

[revkev]

This is why I'm thankful that my handicap is low enough that I'm generally playing for low gross rather than low net. 

[Kenny B]

This is why I'm thankful that my handicap is low enough that I'm generally playing for low gross rather than low net. 

 

THAT is the main reason I would like a lower HCP.  Not that it will ever happen for me, but I hate playing for net.

[Bogey in The Woods]

Also I'm not sure if this is the chart you were referring to Rev but it may be relevant.

http://www.usga.org/playing/handicaps/understanding_handicap/articles/deanstable.html

what are they considering an exceptional score?

[DaveP043]

I believe that if the average of your best two differentials in tournaments (which are adjusted for course rating and slope) over the last year fall into a range of probability of greater than 250 to 1, an adjustment will be applied to your handicap index.

[mr_divots]

I witnessed a guy shoot his personal best at around a 76 on a fairly tough course. It was rare I'd see him break the high 80's. It just came together for him one magical day. Then I never really saw him sniff at that score again.

I guess it can happen. "The Zone" as they say.

[revkev]

Because I've been in the same league with the same guys for a number of years I've gotten to witness lots of stuff.  My experience is that there are a number of the mid-handicap 12-20 types that can be all over the map regardless of what the USGA may say on its chart.  If it were the same guy doing it every year, I'd be suspicious but on occasion I will see a guy who's a 14 or 15 have a round in the mid to low 70's and every week one or more of the lower single handicap guys (there are about 10 of us below a 5 right now with another 10 between 5 and 9) has a nine that is under par - I'd say we have someone shoot par or under for 18 about once a month.

 

It does happen, guys sometimes go off - they win a few bucks, their handicap drops and then they level off to normal because for every great score there will be a couple or three average ones and one real stinker.

[Kenny B]

Because I've been in the same league with the same guys for a number of years I've gotten to witness lots of stuff.  My experience is that there are a number of the mid-handicap 12-20 types that can be all over the map regardless of what the USGA may say on its chart.  If it were the same guy doing it every year, I'd be suspicious but on occasion I will see a guy who's a 14 or 15 have a round in the mid to low 70's and every week one or more of the lower single handicap guys (there are about 10 of us below a 5 right now with another 10 between 5 and 9) has a nine that is under par - I'd say we have someone shoot par or under for 18 about once a month.

 

It does happen, guys sometimes go off - they win a few bucks, their handicap drops and then they level off to normal because for every great score there will be a couple or three average ones and one real stinker.

 

Gosh!  Just like the pros!  Shoot 61 one day and 80 the next.

[revkev]

That's pretty rare but 61,77 happens often or 63, 73. In the course of a season my competitive rounds will range from 70-85. I generally am good for a round a season in the 60's. I have no control over whether that round is competitive or not but I had one last year. I'm going to average 75-77. When I average 75 I'm a 2, 77 a 4 or 5. A lot has to do with how much time I have to play and practice. I think that's true for lots of us as well.

 

Having written that I still have little doubt that there are countless fudged rounds posted on forums both intentionally but more often unintentionally.

[Kenny B]

That's pretty rare but 61,77 happens often or 63, 73. In the course of a season my competitive rounds will range from 70-85. I generally am good for a round a season in the 60's. I have no control over whether that round is competitive or not but I had one last year. I'm going to average 75-77. When I average 75 I'm a 2, 77 a 4 or 5. A lot has to do with how much time I have to play and practice. I think that's true for lots of us as well.

 

Having written that I still have little doubt that there are countless fudged rounds posted on forums both intentionally but more often unintentionally.

 

Agreed.  Pointed out by westy, in the 1st round of the Joberg Open this year:

 

South African Nic Henning produced a sensational course-record equalling 62 over Royal Johannesburg & Kensington's West Course to lead after the opening round of the Joburg Open.

 

 

He shot 78 in the 2nd round and missed the cut.

 

It happens.  Or maybe **it happens.  

[Kor.A.Door]

Keep in mind that the probability is greater for a 12-15 hcp to shoot in the mid 70's, than it is for a 6 to shoot even par. That why you see the everyone in a while round from those guys.

I have also shot even or better on the front or back nine, but unfortunately not the same rounds, generally its 37 on the front 42on the back, or 43 on be front and 36 on the back, but it's mostly due to lack of confidence in the putter, pressure is real

[revkev]

Ah but if you can do it on one nine......

 

It's often those 51/2 inches that gets us.

 

Regardless I do believe I understand why you started the thread. It is like the 300 yard drive. Guys do hit them (actually so do a couple of gals) but no where near as many hit them as say they do. The question is, who really does and on a forum, you don't know. Same with scores.

 

The other thing not mentioned yet is course difficulty and familiarity. In the example of my league the course that we play is moderately difficult but not overly so. Since we have a wide variety of ability levels and ages we finally decided to just play from the whites for guys, yellows for guys over 65 and red for ladies.

 

The best defense this course has is its greens, a couple of tough holes and fairway traps that make you think. When you've played the course 100's of times as all of us have you know what to avoid and you know how the greens will break. It's pretty easy for any of us that get going to keep it going. We all get into trouble when they move the pin placements around and/or the tees because the familiar becomes less so.

[Kenny B]

The other thing not mentioned yet is course difficulty and familiarity. In the example of my league the course that we play is moderately difficult but not overly so. Since we have a wide variety of ability levels and ages we finally decided to just play from the whites for guys, yellows for guys over 65 and red for ladies.

Why do the guys get to move up tee boxes when they get older, but ladies have no place to go?

[Undershooter]

Why do the guys get to move up tee boxes when they get older, but ladies have no place to go?

Holy $H!t is it sexist that I've never thought of that before?

 

Either your a wise man Kenny or your wife plays golf.. Or both lol

[Kor.A.Door]

I think the issue for me is that guys will say they are a 6 and then in the next thread over they say they were out for th 3rd time this year and shot in he 60's, I dream of shooting in the 60's but if it is going to happen it will be gradual to get to that point, if you are a 6 and you post something in the 60's, you will no longer be a 6, nor should you refer to yourself as a 6, I guess that may be part of the issue as well.