After Hours Spy Saloon

[funkyjudge]

On 3/4/2024 at 12:38 PM, chisag said:

... The Saloon is a lonely place these days. But thought I would update Da Bears QB derby and it certainly looks like Caleb Williams will be the choice. I still prefer Drake Maye, but if Maye weren't in this draft I would be ecstatic with Williams. And who knows, maybe Williams will all up side as I think his ceiling is the highest in this draft. 

Looks like your boy, Drake Maye, may drop to the 3rd or even the 4th pick in this year's NFL Draft, behind Jayden Daniels (LSU) at a minimum, and possibly even Michigan's J. J. McCarthy. This is according to The Athletic and interviews that they did with 5 or 6 "senior NFL executives" following the recent NFL Combine. The consensus was that Daniels is favored over Maye by most NFL exec's, and at least a couple prefer McCarthy, or at least they see McCarthy as having a greater upside and better overall QB instincts and mechanics than does Maye.

[funkyjudge]

On 3/4/2024 at 12:38 PM, chisag said:

... The Saloon is a lonely place these days. But thought I would update Da Bears QB derby and it certainly looks like Caleb Williams will be the choice. I still prefer Drake Maye, but if Maye weren't in this draft I would be ecstatic with Williams. And who knows, maybe Williams will all up side as I think his ceiling is the highest in this draft. 

Incidentally, I am not a fan of LSU’s Jayden Daniels! I view him as “Justin Fields 2.0” (at best). Daniels misses lots of obvious reads and is far too quick to scramble whenever his primary target is covered, or appears to be covered. If this continues, he will be no better to any NFL team than Fields is … and maybe not even as good as Fields has been.

[Preeway]

18 minutes ago, funkyjudge said:

Incidentally, I am not a fan of LSU’s Jayden Daniels! I view him as “Justin Fields 2.0” (at best). Daniels misses lots of obvious reads and is far too quick to scramble whenever his primary target is covered, or appears to be covered. If this continues, he will be no better to any NFL team than Fields is … and maybe not even as good as Fields has been.

I'm not really as high on a lot of the prospects as the "experts" are. There as some really good athletes (Caleb Williams) but their data coming out of college just doesn't support the hype. Granted I'm biased as an Oregon fan but I'm shocked that Bo Nix isn't viewed higher with what he did in college. He has more of an NFL type game even if he doesn't have the speed and athleticism of some of his counterparts.

 

[chisag]

1 hour ago, Preeway said:

I'm not really as high on a lot of the prospects as the "experts" are. There as some really good athletes (Caleb Williams) but their data coming out of college just doesn't support the hype. Granted I'm biased as an Oregon fan but I'm shocked that Bo Nix isn't viewed higher with what he did in college. He has more of an NFL type game even if he doesn't have the speed and athleticism of some of his counterparts.

 

 

... For me it is simply the eye test. I don't care about win loss records, especially if the team has a porous defense like USC and NC. What I want to see is how accurate are their throws. How do they perform under pressure. Do they scramble to throw or scramble to run. How do they perform at crunch time. 

... Nix is a tough one but I would certainly take a shot at him mid round if he is available. As we know, predicting how a college QB will play in the NFL is just an educated crap shoot. Teams that really need a QB will reach because they have to. You see red flags and hope they will overcome those deficiencies with the right coaching. And I know I sound like a broken record but I think Williams and Maye are as close to a sure thing as there is. As an Oregon fan I imagine you can see the similarity between Maye and Herbert. I would have taken Herbert over Burrow and Tagovailoa and while Justin is obviously better than Tua, the jury is still out on Burrow. 

... Fwiw, I never saw Daniels play at LSU but saw plenty of him at ASU and he obviously improved tremendously so I really have no educated opinion on him. But I will be the first to admit I was wrong if Williams/Maye don't turn into franchise QB's. At least Williams will be going to an almost ideal situation in Chicago with a 7-10 team that is ascending. 

Edited March 6 by chisag

[Preeway]

I think the really hard thing for Chicago is to determine whether they have the supporting cast to lift a rookie to excel or if they need an established veteran, even if he is a mid-range talent, to lead them forward. There are a few veterans out there with some tread left on their tires that could also be a good short term option. It's always interesting to see if any rookie QBs have staying power or not. Burrows had a good season but he seems more on the mediocre side than top 5. Same with Trevor Lawrence. I really thought he had a chance to shine but doesn't seem to have next level talent. Your right, it's always a crap shoot trying to draft a QB. Which is why I'm always amazed they go so high. Taking a top tier OL is a much easier talent to grade and they don't strike out nearly as often. Yet they always go lower in the draft.

[chisag]

12 minutes ago, Preeway said:

I think the really hard thing for Chicago is to determine whether they have the supporting cast to lift a rookie to excel or if they need an established veteran, even if he is a mid-range talent, to lead them forward. There are a few veterans out there with some tread left on their tires that could also be a good short term option. It's always interesting to see if any rookie QBs have staying power or not. Burrows had a good season but he seems more on the mediocre side than top 5. Same with Trevor Lawrence. I really thought he had a chance to shine but doesn't seem to have next level talent. Your right, it's always a crap shoot trying to draft a QB. Which is why I'm always amazed they go so high. Taking a top tier OL is a much easier talent to grade and they don't strike out nearly as often. Yet they always go lower in the draft.

 

... Te Bears lost 6 games last season by one score. I could make the argument if they had someone other than Fields at QB they could have won at least 3 more games. The supporting cast is already there. Sure, they could use a viable #2 WR and an upgrade at Left OT, but who couldn't? It is an ideal situation for a rookie to step right in and start. There will be growing pains for sure but by mid season we should see what the team looks like and how the QB will perform going forward. 

... You can't win with a stud OT if you don't have a QB. I am right there with you that the Oline is invaluable and with almost any other position I would take a potential franchise lineman over any of them if available with a similar grade. But if you don't have a franchise QB in the NFL you won't win a SB and that is always the goal, so I would make the argument it is worth the risk drafting a college QB that you think will be that guy. The problem is too many teams that desperately need a QB, reach far above their grade. If there is a Joe Alt available at #8 and you have him graded as the best OT in the draft, you just can't take a QB you have ranked 37th on your board just because you need a QB. Obviously too many GMs do just that. I don't blame them, but if there are any concerns at all, it really is a crap shoot. 

[chisag]

... No secret I and most of the NFL hate the Packers for a myriad of reasons. But I certainly can't say they aren't w ell run organization. Arguably one of the best run/pass teams in the league, they have jumped to the head of the class signing Josh Jacobs. Most NFL teams aren't willing to pay for a RB these days but pairing Jones and Jacobs makes them the favorite in the NFC North.  

[KC Golf]

1 hour ago, chisag said:

... No secret I and most of the NFL hate the Packers for a myriad of reasons. But I certainly can't say they aren't w ell run organization. Arguably one of the best run/pass teams in the league, they have jumped to the head of the class signing Josh Jacobs. Most NFL teams aren't willing to pay for a RB these days but pairing Jones and Jacobs makes them the favorite in the NFC North.  

Hope the drop in Field interest is just talk and not real.  I would hate for the Bears to not get a decent amount of picks back for him.

[cnosil]

3 hours ago, chisag said:

but pairing Jones and Jacobs makes them the favorite in the NFC North.  

Things change quick;  that backfield has already been broken up

 

[chisag]

5 hours ago, KC Golf said:

Hope the drop in Field interest is just talk and not real.  I would hate for the Bears to not get a decent amount of picks back for him.

 

... Thanks. I think so many are mesmerized by his insane running ability. He can produce a great highlight film. But anyone doing due diligence and watching every snap of every game can easily see he can't read defenses and holds the ball far too long. I can't think of a worst combo for a NFL QB. The killer part is everyone says he is a great guy, good leader and hard worker. He just isn't a NFL QB. Judging by the lack of interest in him, I am not alone in that assessment. 

[GaryF]

On 3/11/2024 at 9:35 PM, chisag said:

 

... Thanks. I think so many are mesmerized by his insane running ability. He can produce a great highlight film. But anyone doing due diligence and watching every snap of every game can easily see he can't read defenses and holds the ball far too long. I can't think of a worst combo for a NFL QB. The killer part is everyone says he is a great guy, good leader and hard worker. He just isn't a NFL QB. Judging by the lack of interest in him, I am not alone in that assessment. 

I would think there are teams that will have interest that are rebuilding and not ready for their perceived franchise QB.  Maybe that’s not how it works but he brings an element if athleticism that can cover up some shortfalls.  

[RockerFCC]

Question for Bears fans. Do you not think Fields is in the top 10 to 15 of current NFL QB's? I have trouble thinking of even 10 people I would rate higher, especially at his age. I am not a Bears fan, but I live in Chicago so I see a lot of his play. And I am from Seattle, so a massive Pac 12 (well, used to be LOL) fan, so I have seen a LOT of Williams, I just don't see him being better, and I really feel he is more likely to Ryan Leaf than he is to Mahomes. I'd take Harrison and be THRILLED with it, especially in a year or 2 when he become dominant. That seems a lot more certain to me. I get the reading defense thing with Fields, but I also think he made some strides this year and could continue improving. Every year we see "can't miss" QB prospects. Almost all of them fail. Taking Williams is one hell of a risk IMO.

[cnosil]

15 minutes ago, RockerFCC said:

Question for Bears fans. Do you not think Fields is in the top 10 to 15 of current NFL QB's? I have trouble thinking of even 10 people I would rate higher, especially at his age. I am not a Bears fan, but I live in Chicago so I see a lot of his play. And I am from Seattle, so a massive Pac 12 (well, used to be LOL) fan, so I have seen a LOT of Williams, I just don't see him being better, and I really feel he is more likely to Ryan Leaf than he is to Mahomes. I'd take Harrison and be THRILLED with it, especially in a year or 2 when he become dominant. That seems a lot more certain to me. I get the reading defense thing with Fields, but I also think he made some strides this year and could continue improving. Every year we see "can't miss" QB prospects. Almost all of them fail. Taking Williams is one hell of a risk IMO.

Statistically he was ranked 20th and if just looking at passer rating 24th.  
 

drafting any player is a risk not just quarterbacks.   Number 1 pick could fail miserably, Mr irrelevant could lead his team to a Super Bowl, and the goat could come from the 6th round.  Is it the player, the coaches, the teammates, the system?

As the team with the number 1   Pick you have to assess if he is going to get better especially when you have what is considered to be a great quarterback class.  Maybe fields becomes a great quarterback.   If you take Harrison as your pick, do you have a quarterback that can get him the ball?  

[chisag]

On 3/11/2024 at 1:05 PM, KC Golf said:

Hope the drop in Field interest is just talk and not real.  I would hate for the Bears to not get a decent amount of picks back for him.

... 6th round isn't "decent" but I would have given him away for one round on a muni. 

On 3/13/2024 at 10:26 AM, cnosil said:

Statistically he was ranked 20th and if just looking at passer rating 24th.

... And the best the Bears could get was a 6th round pick in 2025. But the NIGHTMARE is over and with the free agent trades shoring up the Oline depth and especially Keenan, the new QB will have some weapons and the 9th pick will be very interesting now that the Bears have Keenan.  

[funkyjudge]

20 minutes ago, chisag said:

... 6th round isn't "decent" but I would have given him away for one round on a muni. 

... And the best the Bears could get was a 6th round pick in 2025. But the NIGHTMARE is over and with the free agent trades shoring up the Oline depth and especially Keenan, the new QB will have some weapons and the 9th pick will be very interesting now that the Bears have Keenan.  

So I assume that Fields is really going to the Steelers?

[KC Golf]

2 hours ago, chisag said:

... 6th round isn't "decent" but I would have given him away for one round on a muni. 

... And the best the Bears could get was a 6th round pick in 2025. But the NIGHTMARE is over and with the free agent trades shoring up the Oline depth and especially Keenan, the new QB will have some weapons and the 9th pick will be very interesting now that the Bears have Keenan.  

I’m sorry it didn’t work out.  Now at least you can move on.  

[cnosil]

14 hours ago, chisag said:

... 6th round isn't "decent" but I would have given him away for one round on a muni. 

... And the best the Bears could get was a 6th round pick in 2025. But the NIGHTMARE is over and with the free agent trades shoring up the Oline depth and especially Keenan, the new QB will have some weapons and the 9th pick will be very interesting now that the Bears have Keenan.  

 

[chisag]

2 hours ago, cnosil said:

 

 

... I still get the Chicago Sun Times everyday and have been reading the sports reporters constantly talking about how the fans love Fields. I have never talked to anyone from Chicago that loved Fields by the middle of his 2nd season when it became apparent he didn't hold the ball and seem confused by defenses because he was a rookie, it was because defenses will always confuse him and he will always hold the ball too long. That was the emphasis in training camp and we were assured in Season 3 we would see Fields getting rid of the ball quickly. Of course he didn't. He simply is not a starting NFL QB. I have wondered if he would entertain moving to WR where his amazing athletic ability and speed could be put to good use. 

... The Trubisky/Fields Error I mean Era, is finally over. Traded picks to move up for both and at best they are back ups for other teams. I thought Pace made some pretty good moves but choosing a QB wasn't one of them. 26 starting QB's in 20 seasons and arguably other than Cutler, not a franchise QB among them. I think we all know there is no such thing as a Can't Miss college QB going to the NFL, but I think Williams and Maye are both as close as it gets.

Edited March 17 by chisag

[funkyjudge]

2 hours ago, chisag said:

 

... I still get the Chicago Sun Times everyday and have been reading the sports reporters constantly talking about how the fans love Fields. I have never talked to anyone from Chicago that loved Fields by the middle of his 2nd season when it became apparent he didn't hold the ball and seem confused by defenses because he was a rookie, it was because defenses will always confuse him and he will always hold the ball too long. That was the emphasis in training camp and we were assured in Season 3 we would see Fields getting rid of the ball quickly. Of course he didn't. He simply is not a starting NFL QB. I have wondered if he would entertain moving to WR where his amazing athletic ability and speed could be put to good use. 

... The Trubisky/Fields Error I mean Era, is finally over. Traded picks to move up for both and at best they are back ups for other teams. I thought Pace made some pretty good moves but choosing a QB wasn't one of them. 26 starting QB's in 20 seasons and arguably other than Cutler, not a franchise QB among them. I think we all know there is no such thing as a Can't Miss college QB going to the NFL, but I think Williams and Maye are both as close as it gets.

Too bad NFL teams rarely (if ever) use the "Wildcat" formation, as Fields would probably do well in the Wildcat.

[chisag]

Just now, funkyjudge said:

Too bad NFL teams rarely (if ever) use the "Wildcat" formation, as Fields would probably do well in the Wildcat.

 

... I am normally not a fan of the wildcat formation as I don't find it any different than a QB handing the ball off in a normal formation. The inly difference is in the wild cat they know it will be a run. That said, when you have an athlete like Taysom Hill that is a bruising runner but can also throw, it can certainly be a nice change of pace and it worked well with Brees in NO. I am not sure Fields can stand up to the punishment between the tackles but I agree with you, it might be worth a shot. He is such a dynamic runner in the open field and if he can get past the first tackle or get some excellent blocking, he can score from anywhere on the field. Fields could also throw from that formation to keep defenses honest because he would most likely only have one target and wouldn't need to actually read a defense, and if not open he would be running. It could be interesting for sure.