Strategize This Hole

[AdultLearner]

To me, the more important question is:

What are your most accurate approach clubs?

[DriverBreaker]

Interesting decision here.  Green is 18yds wide and 23yds deep.

From the left side FW bunker, you have 165yds to the center of the green (a 185yd shot off the tee).  That is probably too far to lay back.  If you can safely fit that 220yd shot into what looks to be 46yds of useable area consistently, then that is probably your play as you take a 135yd shot into the green.

The driver with the hazard on the right adds scores up quickly for not much gained (you're talking a tenth of  a stroke on the PGA tour when splitting 50/50 rough/fairway).  Obviously without the hazard there, driver is the play as the expected strokes gained with 50/50 rough/fairway is lower than the same scenario from 30yds back with a lower big score risk.  If you didn't have to start your driver so far to the right of those trees you can't carry, then you might reduce the number of balls in the penalty area enough to make it worth it.

 

[DriverBreaker]

148yd shot trying to make a hole in one.  Wedge or 9 iron for these guys.  50 balls each, on the tee box.  Same shot over and over.  Left to right dispersion is 32yds.   Due to longer nature of tee balls with driver, dispersion is expected to be wider.

Broadie's 'Every Shot Counts' and Scott Fawcett's data, Lou Stagner, our own Ed Teer, driver dispersion is bigger than we think.  They all recommend ~65yds as a good estimate.  Do pros hit it tighter than that more often, yes, but the big misses do happen and they can cause blowup scores if you don't plan for them to some degree.

From some of Fawcett's stuff:

The charts that @cnosilposted of DJ, Bryson, and Todd's dispersion should clearly demonstrate that big misses do happen to the highest of skilled golfers.

[Gavwlee]

Seems like you have it sorted out, but I think my approach for this hole will be dependent on pin placement.

For a pin tucked back and left, I'd take aim at the first greenside bunker on the left with a driver. You should have low yardage into the green, so with a higher lofted wedge you should have the height or spin to stop the ball on a tucked pin.

If the pin is on the middle, front, or right, I'd go with the same aim point, but with the 3 hybrid, where you might have a longer club in but with a more accessible pin.

With either approach, if you're playing a cut, you'll be in a great place and if you're drawing, you won't be as penalized (per your ability to get out of trouble from those trees).