Course management…Pin seeker vs middle of the green?

[SANDBGGR]

I’ve golfed for 30 years but became a “golfer” about 3 years ago.  I’ve brought my handicap down from 24 to 15 over the last 3 years and am now working on course management.  I can’t help myself when it comes to pin seeking vs going for the middle of the green.  During competition I do try to play more conservative to use my “pops” more wisely and find my scores to be 1-2 shots better on average but the satisfaction of getting birdies and pulling the tough shot off outweighs the couple of shots I may lose by attacking even the toughest pin locations.  I think this exemplifies the aim small, miss small mentality(although I still miss big). My question to you…..when playing casually or for a few jelly beans, do you pin seek more vs playing in a competition?  At my current handicap, should I be ignoring the pins and just working on my GIR%(currently 29%)?  Thanks for your answers and any feedback! 

[Hacker60521]

Oooh this can become a hot topic.  Personally, I tend to focus on the “middle” of the green as a general rule since my club dispersion from can vary around +/- 10 yards from 150-ish and then tightens up as I get closer. Now when I say “middle” I mean the spot on the green that gives me the most room for error. So as I get closer and my dispersion gets lower I’ll aim more towards the pin. The other factor I consider is carry vs total distance.

[cnosil]

If you are working on course management you will probably learn that the strategy varies based on distance from the hole, pin location, shape of the green, trouble around the green, handicap, etc.     I personally follow the approach set out by the  DECADE course management approach.  

Edited August 13 by cnosil

[Rob Person]

44 minutes ago, cnosil said:

If you are working on course management you will probably learn that the strategy varies based on distance from the hole, pin location, shape of the green, trouble around the green, handicap, etc.     I personally follow the approach set out by the  DECADE course management approach.  

This. If your greens are relatively flat or have minimal undulation, then going for the pin IS course management IMO

However, also knowing where to land the ball based on your normal shot trajectory can play a huge part too. I don't have a super high trajectory,  so I can expect roll out when landing the green. So I focus on which area is going to give me the best opportunity to get close. On most of the greens at the GC I play regularly,  they are multi-tiered, and have dramatic amounts of roll off all around. so depending on the pin location, I may go for the pin, or go for the safest spot to putt from (I try to choose uphill then)

[Swood1994]

The first thing that dictates how aggressive I am in any given round is how my swing feels. I can usually gauge that within the first 2-3 holes. Next it depends on the hole, like @cnosil said there are a few factors that make that determination up. Lastly I like to use the Rule of 70. Typically amateurs can miss on average ~35 yards left or right of target, may seem like a lot but it allows me to level set expectations. If I’m playing well I can tighten up that window. Basically if I have trouble within the 70 yard window I reassess my aimpoint to try and take the trouble out of play. 

[JDHolmes]

If I'm 125 yds or in, I'm flag hunting. I can reliably hit inside 15' at 125 and closer as I get closer. My distances are 50, 75, 100 yds where I can inside 6' about 1/2 the time and 90% inside 20 ft from those distances.

From 125 - 165, flag location determines my shot as well as hazards (traps) if I mishit. 175 yds - 230, I'm just aiming for the green, anywhere.

Our greens are VERY slopey so, always be below the hole.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[SANDBGGR]

55 minutes ago, JDHolmes said:

If I'm 125 yds or in, I'm flag hunting. I can reliably hit inside 15' at 125 and closer as I get closer. My distances are 50, 75, 100 yds where I can inside 6' about 1/2 the time and 90% inside 20 ft from those distances.

From 125 - 165, flag location determines my shot as well as hazards (traps) if I mishit. 175 yds - 230, I'm just aiming for the green, anywhere.

Our greens are VERY slopey so, always be below the hole.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk
 

Hi JD. 
Do you take the same approach whether playing a casual round vs tourney/competition round?  I just find it hard not to pin seek during a casual round.  Because I know the exact yardage to the pin and distance of putt(reality is usually distance of my next chip ) I can also gauge my misses more accurately.  I would probably feel like I missed a birdie opportunity if I was aiming at the middle of the green and hit the perfect distance and my aim point.  Birdies are still very rare for me so I am trying(aiming) to be as close to the flag as possible given I only have 18 opportunities to get one during a round.  

[Hacker60521]

Okay. Before I $pend on Decade. What’s the basic premise of Decade and what benefits have you personally experienced? @cnosil @Rob Person

[goaliedad30]

1 hour ago, JDHolmes said:

If I'm 125 yds or in, I'm flag hunting. I can reliably hit inside 15' at 125 and closer as I get closer. My distances are 50, 75, 100 yds where I can inside 6' about 1/2 the time and 90% inside 20 ft from those distances.

So if you're reliably inside 15' from 125, you are more accurate than the best player on the planet ....

[goaliedad30]

Answering the original question: it depends. If the flag is set up favoring my standard shot shape, I can aim to the middle of the green, and if it draws to the flag, great. If not, it's still on somewhere. But if there's bad trouble or a tough short-sided miss left, I'm probably aiming right edge and looking for an easy par.

A lot of this comes down to "where can I NOT miss?"

Mentally, I get the most satisfaction out of shooting the lowest possible score. I've had lots of days where I shot in the low 70's with no birdies. Sometimes putts just don't go in. I know other people who are super excited to talk about the three birdies they made while shooting 90, and that's what keeps them coming back to the course. If you're in the latter camp, you'll fire at more flags.

If you don't want to fully invest in DECADE, start with the book "Lowest Score Wins". The course management sections of it cover a lot of the most important concepts that DECADE is built on.

[JDHolmes]

Hi JD. 
Do you take the same approach whether playing a casual round vs tourney/competition round?  I just find it hard not to pin seek during a casual round.  Because I know the exact yardage to the pin and distance of putt(reality is usually distance of my next chip ) I can also gauge my misses more accurately.  I would probably feel like I missed a birdie opportunity if I was aiming at the middle of the green and hit the perfect distance and my aim point.  Birdies are still very rare for me so I am trying(aiming) to be as close to the flag as possible given I only have 18 opportunities to get one during a round.  

We/I very seldom play a casual round. Monday and Friday is our group game. While not much money, we're still playing a competition flighted, with skins and birdie pool. Tuesday and Wednesday are MGA days so competition vs 50-100 others (with prize money involved) though usually flighted too. Only if I play a 5th day of the week with friends would it be casual and I'd usually be working on iron consistency and distance control.

Our greens here are very difficult with NO flat putts anywhere over 4 or 5 ft. Many have 7+ degree slopes in multiple locations so for us, shooting for center of green is very problematic depending on front, middle, or back pin placement. Any can be on a severe slope. (We have 3 courses here in our community)

In competitions away, I will shoot center of green more often but generally will try and shoot 5' short of flag to have uphill putt as most greens I've played are most often sloped back to front.

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[JDHolmes]

So if you're reliably inside 15' from 125, you are more accurate than the best player on the planet ....
http://content.invisioncic.com/m331004/monthly_2024_08/image.png.c3a06a7de5dcfe37603e3e29dba0900e.png

"Reliably" for me is 1/2 the time or more. I'm not even close to the best players in the world.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[Hacker60521]

10 hours ago, goaliedad30 said:

Answering the original question: it depends. If the flag is set up favoring my standard shot shape, I can aim to the middle of the green, and if it draws to the flag, great. If not, it's still on somewhere. But if there's bad trouble or a tough short-sided miss left, I'm probably aiming right edge and looking for an easy par.

A lot of this comes down to "where can I NOT miss?"

Mentally, I get the most satisfaction out of shooting the lowest possible score. I've had lots of days where I shot in the low 70's with no birdies. Sometimes putts just don't go in. I know other people who are super excited to talk about the three birdies they made while shooting 90, and that's what keeps them coming back to the course. If you're in the latter camp, you'll fire at more flags.

If you don't want to fully invest in DECADE, start with the book "Lowest Score Wins". The course management sections of it cover a lot of the most important concepts that DECADE is built on.

@goaliedad30 I think you’ve articulated my thoughts much better than me. I’m trying to find the shot that gives me the highest chance of being on the green. I’ll definitely check out the book! Thanks 

[cnosil]

10 hours ago, Hacker60521 said:

Okay. Before I $pend on Decade. What’s the basic premise of Decade and what benefits have you personally experienced? @cnosil

What it teaches and what u have learned is better:  Course management, expectation management, mental approach, dispersion patterns; basically how to navigate around a golf course.   I would recommend the foundation level for non competitive amateurs.   As also mentioned the book lowest score wins is a good alternative.  I’d also suggest following Lou Stagner’s social media.  
 

I think as a result my scores are more consistent and I don’t get as upset with poor shots or scores.  

 

[DaveP043]

10 hours ago, Hacker60521 said:

Okay. Before I $pend on Decade. What’s the basic premise of Decade and what benefits have you personally experienced? @cnosil @Rob Person

10 hours ago, goaliedad30 said:

If you don't want to fully invest in DECADE, start with the book "Lowest Score Wins". The course management sections of it cover a lot of the most important concepts that DECADE is built on.

Both Decade and Lowest Score Wins are based on the Strokes Gained concepts that Mark Broadie talked about in his own book, Every Shot Counts.  They try to take into account each of the "obstacles" to scoring, like bunkers, penalty areas, rough, green contours, etc, along with a player's typical shot dispersion pattern to develop an ideal aiming point.  LSW presents some visual methods of evaluation that make a lot of sense to me.  As I understand it, Decade uses the same principles, combined with actual data collected from a player's past rounds to do the same thing.

The short version, however, is that most players should be aiming at the middle of the green most of the time.  As your shot gets shorter, and/or as the obstacles become less severe, the optimal aiming point will become closer to the hole.

12 hours ago, Rob Person said:

This. If your greens are relatively flat or have minimal undulation, then going for the pin IS course management IMO

I don't care how flat the green is, if there's OB near the green, I'm aiming away from it.  If there's a Penalty Area nearby, I'm shading my aim a bit away from it.  Proper "course management" should be about consistently shooting the lowest score, which for most of us means minimizing bogeys, doubles, and the dreaded "others".  As a general rule, you'll 2-putt more often from 50 feet as compared to getting up and down from 30 feet.  Hitting the green is the single most important thing you can do, GIR is the one traditional statistic that correlates best to lower scores.  So aim at the middle most of the time.

1 hour ago, JDHolmes said:

"Reliably" for me is 1/2 the time or more. I'm not even close to the best players in the world.
 

chances are that your assessment of your own performance is a bit optimistic.

[RetiredBoomer]

I was taught to hit to the middle and back and putt toward the edges and front.

Needless to say, I'm still capable of altogether missing a green with a wedge, 
which is pretty much like missing my mouth with a fork.

I just do it with a wedge a little more often.

[cnosil]

13 minutes ago, RetiredBoomer said:

Needless to say, I'm still capable of altogether missing a green with a wedge, 
which is pretty much like missing my mouth with a fork.

Eveyone does, including PGA Tour pros.   @Hacker60521 the below is the kind of thing that DECADE and lowest Score Wins teach 

 

[vandyland]

My challenge is I don't really hit a straight ball past GW. My shots all move right to left so it is more me trying to determine "how much" to expect or take on. Generally, if there is trouble left of the green I aim at the right edge and if there is trouble right of the green I aim at the center. When there is trouble everywhere I aim right center. I usually get double crossed once a round so that is always lurking. 

[cnosil]

7 minutes ago, vandyland said:

My challenge is I don't really hit a straight ball past GW. My shots all move right to left so it is more me trying to determine "how much" to expect or take on. Generally, if there is trouble left of the green I aim at the right edge and if there is trouble right of the green I aim at the center. When there is trouble everywhere I aim right center. I usually get double crossed once a round so that is always lurking. 

There is a difference between “aim” and “target”.  IMO when we say middle of the green that is the target.  As you said for you to hit the middle you have to “aim” right of the middle because of ball flight.  

[bens197]

30 minutes ago, cnosil said:

Eveyone does, including PGA Tour pros.   @Hacker60521 the below is the kind of thing that DECADE and lowest Score Wins teach 

 

I came here to post a Lou data post as well!  Thanks for sharing Chris.

Lou is my favorite twitter follow. This was a breakthrough for my mental game and managing my expectations during a round. 
 

While I tell myself to aim small, I am humbled and grounded by data and the stark reality that golfers often misunderstand how difficult it is to truly fire away at a specific location. 
 

Ok Steve, that’s cool and all but how did you actually use this data to improve?

Here is my index from the last year. My approach towards hitting greens has been focused on just hitting greens and trusting my putting. The numbers speak for themselves…

 

Edited August 13 by bens197

[Byrnzee]

I've gotten much better over the last year at course management and I would say generally I am aiming less at the pin and more at the "safer" shot. Of course there are exceptions as many people have pointed out already. But you can still give yourself birdie opportunities without exposing yourself to the dreaded double-bogeys or worse more often.

I've gone from ~14 handicap to 7.8 in about 15 months and a lot of it has been by trying to play "boring" golf. Hit a fairway, hit a green, two-putt, par, repeat. By knowing where to miss, you're able to eliminate those blowup holes that lead to higher scores overall. If your goal is just to make more birdies and you enjoy the chase of pin-seeking vs. a lower score, that's your prerogative. For me however, my goal was to lower scores and all stats for that point to less doubles, not more birdies.

I still probably average 1-2 birdies a round by using this approach, but I've also drastically reduced double bogeys or worse by playing smarter and not compounding mistakes when I hit a bad shot. Take your medicine and readjust expectations as you go. 

[KC Golf]

This is all very interesting data.  Historically par 3s have never been very good for me statistically.  I use Arccos.

On par 3s, I have recently tried to go for the middle or the fatter portion of the green and I have found my results significantly better on harder pars 3s vs going for the pin on “easier” par 3s.

I am not sure whether Arccos shows that for me, definitively, but my average score on par 3s is declining by a reasonable amount this year.

My issue is I don’t have a specific miss, so I can’t aim knowing I have a consistent fade.  My shot shape is a fade, but on short irons I find I can go either way.

The Lou chart shows that golf is hard.  I recently played with 2 better than scratch guys and I was struck by how many shots didn’t stay on the green.  However they went up and down or sand saved for par each time.  Their wedge play was impressive.  Showed me I still have a lot of work to do.

[Brian A]

I don’t think it’s a simple answer. There is a very birdieable hole at my home course if the pin is on the front half, the back half makes it much more difficult. So pending pin position and green speed / undulations sometimes the middle and take a 2 putt par is the better choice. 

[Hacker60521]

3 hours ago, DaveP043 said:

Both Decade and Lowest Score Wins are based on the Strokes Gained concepts that Mark Broadie talked about in his own book, Every Shot Counts.  They try to take into account each of the "obstacles" to scoring, like bunkers, penalty areas, rough, green contours, etc, along with a player's typical shot dispersion pattern to develop an ideal aiming point.  LSW presents some visual methods of evaluation that make a lot of sense to me.  As I understand it, Decade uses the same principles, combined with actual data collected from a player's past rounds to do the same thing

Thanks for this perspective. I’ve read Broadie’s book so I’ll start with a refresh on the approach shot analysis. 

[DaveP043]

43 minutes ago, Hacker60521 said:

Thanks for this perspective. I’ve read Broadie’s book so I’ll start with a refresh on the approach shot analysis. 

I've read both Broadie's book and Barzeski's book.  As I remember it, Broadie was more about the "theory", while LSW was more about the practical.  LSW also talks about a lot more than just shot planning strategy.

[SANDBGGR]

4 hours ago, Byrnzee said:

I've gotten much better over the last year at course management and I would say generally I am aiming less at the pin and more at the "safer" shot. Of course there are exceptions as many people have pointed out already. But you can still give yourself birdie opportunities without exposing yourself to the dreaded double-bogeys or worse more often.

I've gone from ~14 handicap to 7.8 in about 15 months and a lot of it has been by trying to play "boring" golf. Hit a fairway, hit a green, two-putt, par, repeat. By knowing where to miss, you're able to eliminate those blowup holes that lead to higher scores overall. If your goal is just to make more birdies and you enjoy the chase of pin-seeking vs. a lower score, that's your prerogative. For me however, my goal was to lower scores and all stats for that point to less doubles, not more birdies.

I still probably average 1-2 birdies a round by using this approach, but I've also drastically reduced double bogeys or worse by playing smarter and not compounding mistakes when I hit a bad shot. Take your medicine and readjust expectations as you go. 

Below is results from my Wednesday men’s league(birdies, pars, bogeys, double bogeys & “other”.  There is also a “skins” game that I encourages my “pin seeking” ways.  Probably not hard to tell which stats are mine in the pic(4,16,21,13,9). When speaking of different approach between “competition”, I am mostly differentiating “stroke play club championship, stroke play member/member & match play club championships” against the more casual rounds for a few jelly beans or just pride.  Appreciate all the feed back and charts my fellow spies have included!

Edited August 13 by SANDBGGR
Include which stats were mine.

[cnosil]

22 minutes ago, SANDBGGR said:

 There is also a “skins” game that I encourages my “pin seeking” ways.  

Obviously you can choose how you play but one of the premises that is discussed in DECADE is you can’t chase birdies.   Dispersion patterns are wide; more like a shotgun not a rifle.   Picking the right targets will result in more birdies in the longer term.  Sure you can chase flags and hit some close but you will also hit shots that will prevent a birdie chance.   

[SANDBGGR]

1 hour ago, cnosil said:

Obviously you can choose how you play but one of the premises that is discussed in DECADE is you can’t chase birdies.   Dispersion patterns are wide; more like a shotgun not a rifle.   Picking the right targets will result in more birdies in the longer term.  Sure you can chase flags and hit some close but you will also hit shots that will prevent a birdie chance.   

I 100% agree with what you are saying.  I am going to make a conscious decision to go for the fat/safest part of the green over the next couple of months and will check back in with the results.  Currently 15.6 hcp and hit 29% GIRs with 45% fairways hit(always hit driver btw Except par 3s). Thanks again!

Edited August 13 by SANDBGGR
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[LeftyKP]

I love this debate and as everyone has mentioned there are so many factors. I agree with most of what has been mentioned, but what about your skill level around and on the green? If the strongest part of your game is short chips, you may be fine short siding yourself on occasion from shooting at flags. Also, if you struggle with lag putting, having a first putt of 30 feet may end up with repeat 3 putts. Need to somewhat consider these skills even though most would agree short sided chips suck and should be avoided.

[Old New Golfer]

Interesting thread. Keep in mind. Statistics on pros on the tour. They’re playing courses they don’t know. Not like you do the course you always play. 
I myself am facing the fact that I may never play like I did in the past. I bought that book; Lowest Score Wins. It’s more important for me to use golf to rehabilitate my back. Only reason I’m back. It’s working. 
.

It was so satisfying to drop a ball on the pin with long irons. It was the ultimate in golf to me. But it takes great lessons. Then becoming a range jockey. Work slowly, methodically, not giving up. Until every ball lands on the same spot with that long iron. I may never be able to do that again.