Statistics of probability

[revkev]

I think the issue for me is that guys will say they are a 6 and then in the next thread over they say they were out for th 3rd time this year and shot in he 60's, I dream of shooting in the 60's but if it is going to happen it will be gradual to get to that point, if you are a 6 and you post something in the 60's, you will no longer be a 6, nor should you refer to yourself as a 6, I guess that may be part of the issue as well.

I don't know, what if my ten best scores were 83,81,80,80,80,79,76,77,74,69? That's going to be about a 6 unless the course I'm playing is very difficult and it's not an eye raising string unless the 69 were in a tournament.

 

Now once there are 2 scores in the 60s are sub par in the mix it's pretty tough to imagine the handicap not coming down. Again the best the possibility is that the guy is a better player who pose handicap has gone up because of life obligations or health issues. I know from personal experience that it happens. It's happened to me. Since I've lived in Florida I've had a sustainable (more than one revision) handicap from 2 to 8. In fact I will start the year off in league with a 7 (I had pneumonia 2 years ago and developed bad swing habits trying to come back). My actual differential right now is 2.9. My last league round was a 73 in our year ending tournament and then I had a 69 in a tournament shortly there after. Since that point I haven't played much golf though and what I have played has been with friends using goofy rules (mulligans/call backs/give me's) because we had crazy bets and wanted to make it fun.

 

I start getting back to real golf right after Easter and I'm practicing now so I'd expect that league cap to come down quickly and match my USGA one.

[JBones]

I don't put stock in this, for one simple reason, courses are different in length and difficulty.  My 3.5 handicap is on a tough 7400yd course.  I shoot 60s regularly on the much shorter/easier munis, however one of them has a rating of 67.1, so playing to my handicap puts me around even par and my low round of 65 there isn't as spectacular as the score shows.

[Kor.A.Door]

I don't put stock in this, for one simple reason, courses are different in length and difficulty. My 3.5 handicap is on a tough 7400yd course. I shoot 60s regularly on the much shorter/easier munis, however one of them has a rating of 67.1, so playing to my handicap puts me around even par and my low round of 65 there isn't as spectacular as the score shows.

Yes, but the gandicap system accounts/adjusts for that, but if you don't post the scores, that's where the issues come in to play, there are people who don't like the hcp system so they don't use it, or rather don't use it properly, if everyone uses the system the same way and properly, the system will work for everyone. We had a guy who routinely shot in the mid 70's in our weekend group, yet his HCP index was always above 12, they did some looking and found out he never posted any of the lower scores. He no longer plays with us on Saturday.

[revkev]

Now if that's your concern Kor A Dor there is no doubt that people sandbag.  That's were a handicap committee at a club or for a men's club come in. 

 

There goes Bones again with his length must make it tough posture - I've got a course for you that's well under 7,000 yards that will kick your butt - it's called Merion.

 

I also know a muni that you could play from a more forward set of tees that would play well under 7K too, you might find it tough.  In fact it was so tough that they had to come in and soften it for the US Open.  It's called Bethpage Black and while they had to make 18 longer they totally softened the course with everything else that they did.  I wish they had left it alone and let the guys play it as is with the rock hard traps and green run offs. 

 

Regardless your point is well taken - a person's handicap index is their index - if its 3.5 and you're playing a course with a rating of 67.5 you would be expected to break 70 on occasion.  Now someone needs to tell me where to find a course with that course rating. 

[sp0rtsfan86]

Interesting.

 

Few years ago I was in the c flight which is 16 and above course handicaps. One guy who said he had back surgery a month before the tourney shot a 78. Let me repeat a 78. I shot 86 or something which was below my handicap technically but I had 2-3 rounds in the mid 80's on my sheetHe ended up winning the whole bracket, but only after I took him 5 extra holes.

 

Two years ago in the same tournament I moved up a flight. Shot 45 on the back and shot a 1 over 37, and 3 putted the last hole. One of the guys who was behind me and had played with me before said that he knew I could easily do that, but that I usually had a few bad holes that killed the score. That day, the back nine was something I've never replicated-- I've played 9 hole stretches 2-3 over but never that well.