How low can I expect to reduce my handicap over next 6 months? I'm trying to reduce it at least another 10 strokes.

[Pro-V-None]

Has anyone done a study on how much the average golfer can reduce their handicap over a certain period of time? I heard that after 3 years, you're about as good as you're going to get, but I have no idea if that's true or not.  I just started back golfing around March of this year after 12 or 13 years of not picking up the clubs even once.  I established a handicap in May/June for the first time. I think I was 22 even or with a little change, but am now 17.8. I think I will drop this down about another 10 quickly because I finally have gotten the swing I want and don't plan to make any changes. [I typically love to experiment and was always experimenting, but I've decided on being an "educated hands" player, which simplifies matters and makes corrects easier.]  I have good tracking and improvement tools like the Garmin watch that tracks my data, a friend with a simulator he just bought that I can use, and I live in Scottsdale where golf is year round.  My only downside is that I herniated a disk in my back about 2 months ago and I still feel the disk bulging regularly, so it will limit my practice. The good thing is my swing mechanics are pretty much settled, so I don't need as much and will spend most of it on the short game.

 

I want to see how quickly I can improve with applied effort.  I play about 6 to 8 times per month and practice regularly.  My last two scores were in the 80s and I expect to pretty much stay there and keep dipping down regularly.  What are my chances of getting in the single digits in 3 to 6 months, would you say? What about scratch? Is that like 3 standard deviations of what would be expected? I want to see what I can do with dedicated effort to lower my scores vs. what is to be expected. I'll try to keep this thread going for the full 6 months.

 

GM
Club: Phoenix Area #008
Effective: October 28, 2021
Handicap Number: 10985016
Low Index: 17.8

17.8

Handicap Index®

USGA

 

Edited October 30, 2021 by Pro-V-None

[DiscipleofPenick]

The biggest things to me are pretty simple

Play more

Practice the short game

Course management

That last one is very important, and there's a few contributing factors. Being a 17 hcp I think that makes you a slightly worse than bogey golfer, hcp is potential. The thing is getting anything worse than a bogey off the scorecard, and 1 or 2 doubles isn't going to kill you. If that means hitting a 5i off the tee because there's a lake at 200 on the right, you should do it. Yes it makes par a little more difficult to achieve, but it takes the penalty, and the 7 or 8 off the table. Have a strategy for each hole and be honest with yourself.

 

[cnosil]

7 hours ago, Pro-V-None said:

Has anyone done a study on how much the average golfer can reduce their handicap over a certain period of time? I heard that after 3 years, you're about as good as you're going to get, but I have no idea if that's true or not.  

 

 

I doubt there has been a study as it is really an impossible question to answer since everyone is different.   I don't think that your as good as you are going to get after 3 years is accurate as well.  People have different athletic abilities and ability to learn the skills necessary to play golf.  Players can get better by taking lessons, playing more, and practicing more but there is no guarantee that doing those things will lower your handicap.   You say you have the swing you want, but that really doesn't mean anything;  just makes me ask why you aren't already better if you have the right swing?   If you want to get better,  you probably need to change something about your game.  Maybe your swing is fine but you make terrible decisions on the course.  

[Tom the Golf Nut]

There was an interesting article on Golf.com today called "A hackers guide to breaking 80" Eight ways to pull it off.  Some of these ideas makes sense. It's worth the read.

So part of the original post stated was you will be your lowest in 3 years. I am a classic example of the total opposite. I'm in my sixties and have been playing for 33 years and currently my hancicap is the lowest it has ever been. There will be times where you hit a road block. Mine was a 10 handicap. Once I broke it, my handicap fell steadily little by little. Your never to old to improve as long as you are putting in the correct effort.

Notice I said correct effort. You need a reliable swing and that might mean a couple private lessons. You need proper fitted equipment. Practice with a purpose. Don't  try to practice everything in the same day. Pick two things to work on each session and switch between the two every so often to give yourself a break. When you feel you have it down then change the next practice to other things that you need to improve on. Eventually it all comes together. But you need to get out and play often and have good course management.

I went to my Pro when I was a 10 hc and asked him to look at my swing and tell me what I needed to do to break the 10 hc mark. His answer was very simple. "It all looks good you just need to play more" Thats just what I needed to tell the wife. My Pro said....... 

Achieving scratch is a tall order. Only 1 percent of golfers get to a legitimate single digit handicap. I'll be honest I'm sitting on a .6 and I don't think I can pull it off. That basiially means no mistakes with birdies thrown in. I'm so close but I also realize how much more work it will take but I also have a job and family. I have decided at the end of the season to not chase numbers anymore. It isn't as important to me anymore. I'm not going to keep track or pay for GHIN. I know I can play any course, play well and have fun doing it. That's what it really is about for me now.

Good luck on your journey (I mean job) its work. Looking forward to reading about your progress.

 

 

[Pandaman]

Well ...   As a low 20's index, and turned 60 this year, scratch is an unrealistic target for me.  But I know I can, and will improve on where I am now.

Ultimately though what matters to me is enjoynent.  I think even if I did reach scratch or low single figures the pressure to maintain it would just spoil the fun of playing.  

[BostonSal]

That's quite a challenge for yourself.

If it turns out to be unrealistic, take encouragement in whatever improvement you actually can realize.

That's what most of us do.

[jtgavigan]

What Tom said. For me:

Reliable tee ball

Good course management 

Good with wedges - 130 yards and in, especially around the green

Deadly from 10 feet and in, with great speed control from 30 feet plus putting 

A good mentality 95% of the time you play.

 

I, like Tom, am better now than ever (about to be 51). Just bought DECADE. Decision making and one or two bad tee shots a round are what kills me. Shot 75 the other day. Birdied 3 of the 4 par 5s, just missed eagle on 2 of them from 15 to 20 feet. Two water balls on the back nine off the tee, two 3 putts, one double. Hit 14 greens and had a very abnormal 38 putts (average around 30 putts a round). Hit 9 fairways. My decision making was good. Struck it great except those 2 shots off the tee. I was on both of those greens after the water balls, so I only missed two greens and those were small misses. Bogeyed both.

That round was above my handicap and I felt like I played well. The margins for error get smaller and smaller the lower you go. Your expectations have to change with it and sometimes, that is the hardest thing to manage.

I shot 69, my career low round at the beginning of this month. Was 3 under (should have been 4 under) on my next 9. Shot 76. Have shot 76-76-79-79-78-75-75 since the 69. I literally thought as you did. Barrier broken, will shoot in the 60s a lot now. I found those first few rounds I got frustrated earlier and my scores got away from me. So be careful of expecations.

Edited October 31, 2021 by jtgavigan

[Larryd3]

For me, it's the stupid shots where my brain turns on and I start thinking before and during the swing instead of just getting up and hitting the ball.  That many times results in double bogeys.  I was able to drop my index around 6 strokes very quickly after some lessons including a couple of short game and aim point putting lessons.  Those really make a difference for me because I'm not very long any more so I have to have good short game.  But I also fouled up and switched irons earlier this year, after a fitting, and my iron play went downhill and scores went up.  Got rid of them recently and am hitting the new ones much better and consistently.  Time will tell.   To me a combination of the right teacher (lessons), practice and playing a lot, along with the mental aspect, is what will get scores lower.      

[Kenny B]

On 10/30/2021 at 2:04 AM, Pro-V-None said:

Has anyone done a study on how much the average golfer can reduce their handicap over a certain period of time? I heard that after 3 years, you're about as good as you're going to get, but I have no idea if that's true or not.  I just started back golfing around March of this year after 12 or 13 years of not picking up the clubs even once.  I established a handicap in May/June for the first time. I think I was 22 even or with a little change, but am now 17.8. I think I will drop this down about another 10 quickly because I finally have gotten the swing I want and don't plan to make any changes. [I typically love to experiment and was always experimenting, but I've decided on being an "educated hands" player, which simplifies matters and makes corrects easier.]  I have good tracking and improvement tools like the Garmin watch that tracks my data, a friend with a simulator he just bought that I can use, and I live in Scottsdale where golf is year round.  My only downside is that I herniated a disk in my back about 2 months ago and I still feel the disk bulging regularly, so it will limit my practice. The good thing is my swing mechanics are pretty much settled, so I don't need as much and will spend most of it on the short game.

 

I want to see how quickly I can improve with applied effort.  I play about 6 to 8 times per month and practice regularly.  My last two scores were in the 80s and I expect to pretty much stay there and keep dipping down regularly.  What are my chances of getting in the single digits in 3 to 6 months, would you say? What about scratch? Is that like 3 standard deviations of what would be expected? I want to see what I can do with dedicated effort to lower my scores vs. what is to be expected. I'll try to keep this thread going for the full 6 months.

 

GM
Club: Phoenix Area #008
Effective: October 28, 2021
Handicap Number: 10985016
Low Index: 17.8

17.8

Handicap Index®

USGA

 

The statement that after 3 years you are as good as you are going to get is not true.  As others have said, it depends on your dedication to the game.  At 74 I am more consistent than I was even 10 years ago, and have shot lower scores.  However, I do believe that after some time, maybe it's 3 years IDK, the swing you have... good or bad... is what you have to work with unless you make a conscience decision to correct any issues.  That change takes a lot of time (I know), especially if you've been swinging your swing for a long time, and professional help is probably needed.

I would be interested in @chisag opinion on your quest given his experiences.  Since he lives in your area, I recommend that you arrange to play with him.  If you do, please give us an update.

[jtgavigan]

1 hour ago, Riverboat said:

Barriers like this come in two kinds. The ones that are mental/ emotional can be broken with just one or two scores. You break the barrier, now you know you can, and so it happens far more often. 

Other barriers are physical. The goal you are striving for really is at the extreme limits of your physical capabilities. Like you, I once thought the 60s would become commonplace for me. But years after doing it the first time, I've still only managed it a handful of times. It's not mental, I'm no longer "afraid" of going that low. It's just really hard to do. For me, I have to keep every drive in play, hit way more greens than usual, make virtually every putt inside 10 feet, and get up and down nearly every time on the greens I miss. Like you said, the margins are razor thin. 

So what's my point? If there is a barrier we are shooting for, we need to be honest about which type it is. If it's the former, working a little harder on weaknesses and the mental game should help you get where you want to be. If it's the latter, we need to accept it and really celebrate the rare occasions when we accomplish that goal. Unrealistic expectations that it will lead to regular repeat performances can ruin the satisfaction of otherwise great rounds that barely miss the mark and can make the game in general a lot less fun. 

For me, it is all mental. People were shocked that I hadn't done it. I certainly dont expect to shoot in the 60s every time out (well, I did expect another one by now, as I am hitting it well). 

Sometimes,  the limits are mental, and other times physical and we have to be realistic. If you watch me play, you would likely be surprised that I don't shoot lower more often.

So, the round after the 69. I am cruising along at 3 under with a short birdie miss on 8. I get to the 10th tee. Easy hole, wide fairway. 3 wood in hand. Pick a target, step into the ball. Know I am too close to it and dont back off. Fan it far right into water that shouldn't even be in play from where I was playing. No problem.  Drop from 160 out. Slice lie. Light rough. Yank it left of the green and into an area that is just dead. Take triple. Next hole, par 5, easily reachable. Hit my drive pissed off. Drop kick it and hit a big hook left. Get it back in play. Catch a wedge a hair fat and end up short on a front pin. Chip on and miss for bogey. I am now mentally toast. Shot 41 on the back. THAT is what has always held me back. That one shot that spirals my round out of control. Working on that hard. Being more committed more often helps.

Last 2 rounds have been 75-75. Had doubles in both rounds but didnt let them derail me. If I carry that mentality of one shot at a time, I should shoot some  nice scores.

 

The point of all of that is 10 to 15 handicap golfers do the above more often and often it is multiple double and triple bogeys that lead to 90s plus rounds. Often, there is a way to manage it, but they are even less equipped than me usually to manage it. Sometimes,  when they are a few over after 9 and one or 2 bad swings leads to a 50 on 9 and then many bad rounds follow. To me, the mental game is even more of a mastery to a higher handicap player and expectations are tougher on them after a good round.

[Tom the Golf Nut]

When I first started playing I asked a guy I worked with who was scratch to help me. We arranged a time and course to meet up at. I showed up with my shiney new set of Cobra's. I met him at the practice area and he sent me back to the car telling me to only come back with my gap wedge, pitching wedge and putter. He said until you can chip and one putt on a consistant basis we aren't going further. If you master this, it will save your game. 

Today some 33 years later it was the best advice and lesson I ever had. It is a very strong part of my game to this day and has bailed me out of tons of those missing the green or coming up short shots. You need the confidence that if you miss the green you will get up and down for par.

[RollingGreens]

Scratch is a quite difficult feat but a single digit handicapper  isn’t terribly difficult. Play smart off the tee, hit your GIR, no more than a 2 putt if you miss the green stick it close. Eliminate compounding errors, taking your medicine when needed. I went from an 15 this year to a 8.2 granted it’s the most golf I’ve ever played and at a course with a slope of 140. So it’s attainable if you take the right path

[Tom the Golf Nut]

18 minutes ago, Riverboat said:

It also drives opponents absolutely crazy when they hit the ball better than you and you keep tying or beating them hole after hole. 

Absolutely! I can't count the time I have been called something. You know!

[Tom the Golf Nut]

5 minutes ago, RollingGreens said:

Scratch is a quite difficult feat but a single digit handicapper  isn’t terribly difficult. Play smart off the tee, hit your GIR, no more than a 2 putt if you miss the green stick it close. Eliminate compounding errors, taking your medicine when needed. I went from an 15 this year to a 8.2 granted it’s the most golf I’ve ever played and at a course with a slope of 140. So it’s attainable if you take the right path

Slope of 140 .... Dam that's tough. Mine is only 117 but I think it is low. People that play my course that are members somewhere else with a higher slope think my course is tougher.  But I wouldn't say its higher than 122.

[RollingGreens]

3 minutes ago, Tom the Golf Nut said:

Slope of 140 .... Dam that's tough. Mine is only 117 but I think it is low. People that play my course that are members somewhere else with a higher slope think my course is tougher.  But I wouldn't say its higher than 122.

Their is no shortage of danger on every hole. Plus lots of sand and water, it certainly isn’t a flat course. Each of the par 5s are not reachable in 2. It makes you focus in course management and playing for par and picking your spots for scoring 

[RollingGreens]

4 minutes ago, Riverboat said:

Course and slope ratings can be very deceptive. In my opinion, they are tied far too tightly to distance. Much more consideration should be given to lack of level lies, size of greens, and break of greens. When I coached, our home course was well under 6000 yards and had the lowest course and slope rating in our league. It's an old tillinghast layout with no level lies and diabolical greens. Year after year, scores at our home matches were the highest in the league, including scores from courses that were over 1000 yards longer with way higher ratings. I know I had a much trouble going low there as those other courses also, so it wasn't just that the kids weren't used to that type of layout. Challenges come in many forms, but distance is king for ratings. 

I would think the Bryson effect or the distance debate shows why. If your out driving all the hazards and danger your taking the difficultly out of the course. 

[Firebird]

As far as I am concerned it all comes back to your swing or more importantly the weaknesses in your swing. I went from 12-14 to 3-4 over a 12 month period many years ago. That however involved a huge amount of commitment, time, lessons etc. The key point to my success was that I had a really good pro, he did not patch problems, he rebuilt my swing from the ground up. Yes it was frustrating and my handicap went up not down in the first 6 months but slowly I started to get it right and once I did then things changed quite quickly. Initially I was having lessons twice a month and hitting 400-500 balls a week. I found it really hard to change my bad habits and allot of time slipped back in to them without realising. However I always started a range session by doing specific drills and eventually they become ingrained. Once I got to this point I started playing 72 holes a week when possible as well and still spending time on the range.

The last 3 months were spent on learning to to work the ball, course management, etc. I had always been very good at chipping and putting so that reduced the time frame.

So what could be achieved in 6 months all comes back to what you are starting with, the amount of time you can allocate to it, and how much you are willing to spend on lessons.