Quota Tournaments and Strategy

[RoverRick]

This weekend I am playing in a big quota tournament.  This is one of a three part series of tournaments held around the state of Texas, although one of them has been held in Shreveport, LA for the past several years.  t has been moved back to Texas and specifically to my home club.

 

These tournaments are called "The Taco" held near the Texas-Mexico border, "The Dallas Classic" held in Dallas of all places and "The Halloweenie" formerly held in Shreveport but now here.  These used to be team quota events, but it has been difficult to get enough teams together so now it is everyone for themselves. 

 

A Quota Tournament uses a modified Stableford System and awards points based on par for the hole.  Bogies are worth 1 point, pars = 2, birdies = 3, eagles = 4, and double eagle = 5.  Quotas are established based on handicaps.

 

A lot of golfers do not do well on this format because they have the wrong philosophy, in my opinion.  It is like lowering the handicaps.  The key to lower a handicap is not to make more birdies, unless you are a scratch golfer, but to make more pars and no double bogies.  They look at the scoring system and see that birdies and eagles are worth more points so the go out with the plan to rack these up. 

 

I look at this another way.  If I can bogey every hole I have 18 points to start with.  So my goal is to make pars.  All pars is 36 points and that is in the money. 

 

As an aside, I played like crap from mid-May until about 2 weeks ago.  Since I have still played 3-4 rounds a week and played poorly my handicap is no where near what is listed here, simply because my lower scores have been so long ago.  I was distracted with life and not overly concerned about golf.  Things have leveled out now, and I am focused on golf again.  The last couple of weeks, my game has come back around, but still  not enough low scores to lower my cap again.  I know I have the potential and, while I have not been sandbagging, I have an excellent opportunity to finish high.  Saturday night they will reevaluate and increase quotas so that I will not win, but can still finish well.

 

Okay, so back to the strategy.  I am probably going to be put in at around a 28 quota.  That means I will have to shoot a 84 in tournament conditions to make my quota. Should be no big deal.  That is 10 pars and 8 bogies.  Throw in a couple of putts and maybe a chip in, which I often have, and I am well over my quota.

 

Here is the plan, I have looked at every hole on the course, and I know where I get into trouble.  My goal is to give myself at least a short putt for par on every hole.  This means I do not have to bomb it down the fairway and get into wedge range and then knock the flag down to get a birdie.  It means that I need to play to my strengths.

 

That is wedges and putting.  On the tee box I need to hit the club that keeps me out of trouble.  I know that lately, on two of the par 5's I have been hitting driver into the trees and having to play the super recovery shot trying to make birdies, and failing miserably.  In reality my best birdie opportunity is to hit into the fairway and then a hybrid or FM inside 100 yards and then wedge it close.  I know that on number 2, if I do not have make the turn and have a straight shot to the green, then I need to lay up and wedge the ball close and try to make a putt for par and be happy with the one point bogey.  There is no reason to chance the water or the bunkers.

 

Do you play this type of tournament?  If so, what is your strategy?

[mnfats95]

Sounds like a solid plan to me.

 

I know whenever I get smart and leave the driver in the bag I usually wind up messing it up anyway, but at least I had the right idea.

 

Good Luck!!!

[markb]

I just played in a modified stableford where doubles or worse were -1, bogies 0, pars 1, birdies 3, and eagles 6.   I can tell you that 15 pars and a few bogies would have gotten in the money.   My partner did well with 10 total points.   I had friggin 5 because the doubles were killers, not only did they set me back, but they took away a chance to notch another solid +1.  

 

Play safe, play for par, don't short side yourself.   In your format two pars = more than one birdie!   No reward for eagle or albatross, not even worth the risk if any risk is involved.

[revkev]

I'm surprised at the scoring in Rick's tournament. Everyone of these I've ever played in, andI've played in lots because it's the most frequent format here, is modified stableford that rewards birdies if there is a quota based on handicap or eagle if it's based on points with handicap used and applied.

 

Under Rick's scenario you need to avoid double. Under my scenario you better make some birdies and if it's my second scenario the birdies need to come on the holes where you get a stroke because that's always the winner, the guy who gets the extra points for the eagle.

 

I played in one of those one where I played like crap all day, birdied 17 for 4 and eagled 18 for 7. That put me ahead on my quota and in the money.

 

I love the format, don't make double and birdie the right holes or in Rick's just avoid double.

[RoverRick]

We have discussed changing the modified Stableford points for our weekend group.  The problem we have is the higher handicapper feel like a negative number is more penal to them because they make more doubles.  I have always thought that it did not matter because if the quotas were assigned fairly than it would all work out.

 

However, is RevKev right?  Does changing the way the point are given really change the strategy on the course?  Must you make more birdies if the scoring system changes?

 

Let's look at the points from Mark B.  doubles or worse -1, bogies 0, pars 1, birdies 3, and eagles 6.  Avoiding the doubles or worse is much more important in this scenario, but a birdie is rewarded more. 

 

However, I still am a firm believer you can not birdie the hole from the tee box.  The purpose of the tee shot is not to get you in "birdie range".  Whatever the hell "birdie range" is in the fairway anyway.  Granted, when I was playing my best, early May-ish, inside of 125 yards I was averaging 8' 4" from the hole.  I was also making >85% of my putts inside 9 feet.  So you could say inside of 125 yards in the fairway was "Birdie Range" for me.  I should probably add back then.

 

That makes all the par 5's birdie holes, after two good shots,  The only par 3 close to that range is the island green I spoke of in the Nemesis hole thread and since it is so penal for missing the green you have to go for the middle of the green.  Not sure where the flag will be located but I have been told "28 points with the way the course will be set up is a very good score."  I know the course will be playing long and narrow.  Because of changes in the mowing practices, most of the fairways are 10-20 yards narrower on each side.  The most noticeable is number 5.  It predominately plays down wind and in previous years a 260 yard drive would reach the top of the hill and run giving you a 300+ total.  Now with the narrower fairway, landing the ball in the same spot will net you a 260 yard drive into the rough.  Land it in the "now" fairway and it will bounce left and net you 275.

 

Oops, getting off topic.  So "Birdie Range" off the tee is really only possible for me now on 2 holes.  One of those, number 1, means that to drive the ball into "Birdie Range" I have to thread the needle between a huge oak and a bunker we have named "LaBrea", because if you go in there archeologists will have to excavate your bones out in 1000's of years.  The bottom is 10 feet below the fairway.  The green is not visible from in the bunker.

The safe play is to stay far enough back to not reach the bunker and be able to clear the tree.  OB is 10' right of the cart path.  And the rough is ankle high on the left.

 

My point was that there really is no such thing as "Birdie Range" in the fairway.  Birdie range is almost anywhere on the green.  You can luck in a putt from anywhere on the green.  You can also chip in for a birdie, but you should not be thinking birdie until you are on or near the green.  All the par 5's are birdie holes, but after a good second shot, or third.

 

(Sorry, I sort of wandered off for a bit.)

 

With the different points system, birdies are rewarded more, but doubles are penalized more.  No matter what, it is imperative that double bogies are to be avoided and pars are a good score.

 

In the point system we are using this weekend, an 84 nets you 28 points.  I said earlier that 10 pars and 8 bogies will net me 28 points.  Throw in a double bogie and now I need 11 and 6 or 10 pars, 7 bogies and a bird.

 

In Kenny's (received a text from a Kenny and typed his name) Mark's system an even par round (18 pars) is just 18 points.  An 84 will mean 10 points?  10 pars and 8 bogies.  However, with one double you need 11 pars.  Two doubles you need 12 or a bird and 8.  Looking at the same score of 10 pars 7 bogies and a bird that is 13 points.

 

I maintain that the conservative method like all stroke play events is the better option. 

 

Rev, what would be a good Quota number for an 84 shooter?  And let's say a 78 also, which is closer to where I probably should be. 

[revkev]

I missed that Mark had negatives in his, I've never played in one of these things with negatives and of course that could change things.

 

I've played these things two ways. They give you a quota based on handicap and your final score is plus or minus from your quota plus being better. It's not a one for correlation but your quota will be close to 36- your handicap.

 

My league is modified stableford using full handicap. We are flighted and you compete against your flight. Right now I'm getting 2 per nine. We do average point total per 9 for the season. Normally it takes around 18.5 to win a flight and over 18.0 will reach the playoffs.

[RoverRick]

In this Quotas are based on handicaps.  Basically, a good round and you should be 3-4 over your quota.  Everyone likes to break their quota and as long as it is applied consistently it does not matter.  So if you have a good round and shoot 3 over your quota that is fine.  However, if you go 5 or 6 over your quota you can expect a "Battlefield Promotion" and they will raise your quota by up to 5 points.

 

I personally plan, PLAN that is, on getting a battlefield promotion, because I plan, PLAN, on shooting even par or better.  This is a feat I have not accomplished in almost 6 months but I feel it coming on. 

[RookieBlue7]

We used to play double was negative, bogey 1, 2 for par, 4 birdie and 6 eagle. Then they took the negative out. I've always played by letting the tee ball determine my strategy. In good position, I'm firing at flags and trying to knock down birdies. I've scored 50+ before with that strategy and unless I'm not chipping and putting well, it's easy to recover and par holes.

[revkev]

We used to play double was negative, bogey 1, 2 for par, 4 birdie and 6 eagle. Then they took the negative out. I've always played by letting the tee ball determine my strategy. In good position, I'm firing at flags and trying to knock down birdies. I've scored 50+ before with that strategy and unless I'm not chipping and putting well, it's easy to recover and par holes.

And you aren't making worse than bogey!

 

I maintain that making birdies is the key to this format. Birdies on the right holes are the key to the format in my league. A birdie on 2,5,12 or 17 offsets two bogeys.

 

In Rick's scenario I'd be more conservative and I'm rarely ever chasing birdie off the tee unless there is very little risk involved. Once out there though I'm going flag hunting.

[RoverRick]

I am not advocating not making a birdie.  On the contrary, I am a big birdie fan.  However, never give up a par trying to make a birdie.

[revkev]

I am not advocating not making a birdie.  On the contrary, I am a big birdie fan.  However, never give up a par trying to make a birdie.

I would agree under your rules, not so when birdie is 4 points instead of 3. 1 plus 4 equals 5 while 2 plus 2 equals 4. With your rules it's not worth the risk. My Friday money game and league formats put a huge premium on eagle or making a birdie net eagle. The people who cash in those games need to make a couple of net eagles, it's always the case.

[BrrrrMan78]

I agree that if birdie is only 3 points, then the goal is to eliminate all "other" scores. That being said, you are definitely at a disadvantage against a lower quota with the spread being so small between birdie and bogie. Seems to me mathematically speaking you are going to need at least 2-3 birdies to offset the few inevitable bogeys that lie in wait. I think your goal should be to get as close to 32-33 points as possible and hang on! Second goal should be to find a scoring format where birdies and eagles are worth more, and play in those events. Much more rewarding for a player of your caliber.

[revkev]

I agree that if birdie is only 3 points, then the goal is to eliminate all "other" scores. That being said, you are definitely at a disadvantage against a lower quota with the spread being so small between birdie and bogie. Seems to me mathematically speaking you are going to need at least 2-3 birdies to offset the few inevitable bogeys that lie in wait. I think your goal should be to get as close to 32-33 points as possible and hang on! Second goal should be to find a scoring format where birdies and eagles are worth more, and play in those events. Much more rewarding for a player of your caliber.

+1

[RoverRick]

I agree that if birdie is only 3 points, then the goal is to eliminate all "other" scores. That being said, you are definitely at a disadvantage against a lower quota with the spread being so small between birdie and bogie. Seems to me mathematically speaking you are going to need at least 2-3 birdies to offset the few inevitable bogeys that lie in wait. I think your goal should be to get as close to 32-33 points as possible and hang on! Second goal should be to find a scoring format where birdies and eagles are worth more, and play in those events. Much more rewarding for a player of your caliber.

 

Thanks. 

 

Just got back from the committee meeting on this, and it looks like I am going have a higher quota than I thought.  No worries.  The quota promised me was a bit low.  Haha.  Although, that was brought on by poor play.  Tomorrow is the practice round and I am ready.  I am going to need 32-33 points, at least.

 

The first goal, however, is to avoid the double bogie.  I can make up a bogie with a birdie, but eagles are much harder to come by.  I may have two eagle opportunities.  While I have reached all the par 5's in two, two of them are simply too penal to miss the fairway to take the chance.  Tomorrow, I am not even hitting driver off these holes.  A 3 hybrid and a 3 wood off these still leads statistically to more birdies than driver in the woods.

 

With my wedge game and putting, I think I have 6 really good birdie opportunities, and that does not even include hitting irons in close.  Also, I usually chip in once per round.  The guys I play with normally have said it doesn't even surprise them when I chip in.

 

Can't wait until tomorrow.

[RoverRick]

Today's practice round, ah....., did not go according to plan.  I am pretty sure you could blindfold me and spin me around and I would have putted as well. 

 

I eventually figured out I had a setup error. 

 

I think my strategy was sound, but my execution was somewhat lacking on the greens.

[revkev]

I hope Rick does well today. I just did something I've never done and withdrew from my tournament. I didn't feel well last night and am worse today. Tomorrow is a huge day at church and so I couldn't see being out in the sun for four to five hours and turning an upper respiratory thing into something much worse. So I have Tuesdays win and the St Nick Open in December to hang my hat on.

 

Good luck RR!

[RoverRick]

Tournament is over.  While I did not play my best, I did not play my worst either.  I finished 2 strokes or points out of the money, and I have no one to blame but myself. 

 

While it would be true that I did not make the shots I had to, when I had to, that I missed a number of putts that were costly.  These were 6-8 foot putts not inside 3 feet. I am not particularly upset by that.  Bad shots are a part of golf, and an almost perfect putt outside of 3 feet can still not fall in.

 

The most upsetting thing to me was.... not sticking to my game plan. Yes, after a week of talking about it I did not do it.  And how long did I last?  Well, on the first hole, I teed off with a 5 wood, had about 140 to the green from the center of the fairway, hit it to 20' and made the 6" come-backer for par.  Second hole, a par 5, I was going to go for in 2 if I got 5 wood or better range.  Sadly, I was not 5 wood, but if I stepped on a 3 wood, and hit the perfect shot, I could maybe have an eagle putt.  4 putts.  I swung so poorly, I almost lost a leg.  Now, I am hitting 3 from the 8 inch rough 200 out.  I ended up with no points.  The next day, same hole, same tee shot, I had a 4' birdie putt, after laying up.

 

There were several holes the first day that I could have played better, but after that second hole, I did stick with the strategy until late in the round.  I began to try to make up strokes, and failed miserably. 

 

But the second day was worst. The wind, hole locations, waxed greens, and pressure made scoring tough.  At the end of the day, there were only four guys who made their quotas.  I did not, and could not know this, and at the turn, I abandoned pretty much all strategy trying to make birdies and make up for my less than stellar front 9.  Yeah, that didn't work.

 

So, I maintain that the strategy was good, I just needed more discipline. 

 

The main thing is I began to try to kill the ball off the tee and things went downhill from then.

 

Also, for some reason I was timid with the wedges all weekend, and did not hit them particularly well.  But there is always next year.

[fozcycle]

Rick,  I manage a weekly game in Tampa, where we play modified Stableford Points every week of the year.  Bogey 1, Par 2, Birdie 4 & Eagle 6.....if double bogey you pick up and move on.

 

Each week every player has a Quota of points to shoot for. Since our season is divided into two parts, winter & summer, we use a rolling 10 round average for your Quota.  A couple weeks ago, we voted to change this to a Top 5 Average out of the rolling 10 rounds.  This was to ensure that there are no sandbaggers.  Since we play year round, the rolling average has worked well.  Now everyone's Quota will go up from 1 to 5 points based upon the top 5 averages out of their last 10 rounds.  Using the Quota system has made keeping the books and settling the weekly game pretty easy.......just time consuming.  I developed an excel worksheet to handle all the scores, points, rounds etc.

[golfdwc1019]

fozcycle, we play a quota game every week with your exact system from 2014.  We monitor how far the quota is from GHIN.  Almost everyone's game quota is higher than a GHIN-derived quota now, thanks for the birdie bonus and the 0 for db or worse.  We haven't determined yet whether higher-handicap players who cannot reliably make at least 1 birdie a week are finishing in the money as often as the guys whose course handicaps are in the 0-5 range.  Last season we used GHIN to derive quota, and I ran the numbers for all scores of players who played at least 10 weeks -- the low half of the handicaps were 60% more likely to win, and 40% more likely to finish in the top 3.  People didn't notice, because we have a handful of non-disciplined members with a unique approach to the game that could be single-digit handicapper, but regularly record scores in the 90s.  Those golfers have high handicaps, but can reliably make a birdie.  I think the board chose to move to a rolling quota to address complaints about sandbaggers, rather than to address the bias toward players who can make birdies more regularly than their GHIN index suggests they should.

The most vocal opponents of the system we are using this season (your system) are the guys who used to win ALL THE TIME.  Their quotas are in the ~40 range because they make an average of 3-4 birdies, and typically play from the forward tees (seasoned guys with very solid games, typically in their late 60s or early 70s).  Those same guys are the ones who show up every week, and consistency is the best thing for an association like ours, so we don't want to intentionally piss them off.  The other downsides of this system:

category 1) 10-20 handicappers with good length: their indexes are high because they make doubles and triples and don't care.  They make lots of pars and the occasional birdie (about as often as the 5-10 handicappers make birdies -- about .5 per round).  These guys seem to make their quotas more often than others.  They win the most with this new system, and it will take time for their quotas to adjust.  New players in this category will win a lot initially, until their quota adjusts.

category 2) 10-20 handicappers without length who are the typical bogey golfer (they swing within themselves, and they can rely on the ball not going sideways) really struggle to ever make their quotas, because they simply cannot rely on finding any real opportunities to make birdie.  This is bad, because these guys are almost never rewarded with points or money unless they score several strokes better than their index, which means playing a very clean round with no major mistakes or 3-putts.  They regularly score lower than category 1 players and lose simply because a birdie is worth 2 pars, and erases a double or triple.

3) weekend single-digit guys -- short game will never be as good as the retired guys who play 5 times a week.  Those of us in this category can have a clean card, shoot 1 below their index (which should happen about 1 out of 10 rounds), and fail to make their quota, which is slightly higher than their index because they make 1 birdie every other round that erases 2 of their bogeys.  The guys in this group shoot their index no more than once every 5 rounds, and can't beat their quota unless they shoot something like 4 under their index (the probability of that is worse than 100:1).  These guys have no chance of winning. E.g. a guy with a 5 handicap who usually makes 12 pars and 7 bogeys on an average day will most likely have a quota of 31 or 32, and he will have to make 2 birdies to beat his quota, or a once-a year round, like 16 pars and 2 bogeys, to finish +2.  The winners are usually +4 or slightly higher, so there is no chance for these guys because of the way the birdie bonus and the absence of a penalty for double.

I want to contend that we should drop the quota, put the -1 for double back in play, but score points for NET scores.  Steady eddies who have a reasonable chance at parring the stroke holes can actually start to record the occasional 4-point birdie.  

 

How did your league evolve over the last 9 years?

 

Edited March 8, 2023 by golfdwc1019
typos and clarity