Who Can Overtake Scottie For #1?

[GolfSpy_APH]

Scottie is the clear number 1 player in the world. I don't think many would argue that, but who is number 2? Ans who do you think has the best chance to surpass him for #1?

[silver & black]

Golf is an equal opportunity hater.  Scotty is on top 'now'... just like DJ, Jason Day, Jordan Spieth were some time ago. No one is immune to it. Someone else will have his time as the 'golden boy' after Scotty. It's a vicious cycle. 

[Josh Parker]

I honestly think Aberg will move up the ranks. He's consistent and the more time he gets on the PGA, I think we will see him start winning more and more. 

[ParFore74x]

Who is #2? That’s a tough question. I know that Rory is listed as #2 and that there are a lot of great players towards the top of that list but, none of them are as consistent as Scottie. Looking at the OWGR list of names makes my head swirl just thinking about it. I don’t see Scottie being threatened at the top any time soon. 

[IanCC]

It’s the obvious answer. Ludvig Åberg. Other than possibly Wyndham Clark or Max Homa, everyone else feels like they have either reached their maximum or are on their way down. There’s still guys who may find the magic again like Viktor or Collin but not much outside that for me. 

[Wburdett]

Right now only thing that will slow Scotty down is putting. The mallet has been instrumental in his wins but his short game is probably best on tour along w ball striking.  Granted ball striking can leave a golfer but Scotty has been elite for yrs now.  Aberg is 2 he has the mental makeup and love for game right now along with his precision.  I think these 2 are going be battling in majors for awhile. 

[Just_the_Chip]

PGA Tour/OWGR or actual real life World Rankings?

 

I would say Schauffele or Rahm in the short term.

Edited April 17 by Just_the_Chip

[RickyBobby_PR]

9 minutes ago, Just_the_Chip said:

PGA Tour/OWGR or actual real life World Rankings?

 

I would say Schauffele or Rahm in the short term.

Owgr are the only rankings that matter and rahm will be losing points he week he is away from the pga tour so highly unlikely rahm would.

 

 

[GolfSpy_APH]

Just now, RickyBobby_PR said:

Owgr are the only rankings that matter and rahm will be losing points he week he is away from the pga tour so highly unlikely rahm would.

 

 

Counter - none of them really matter now in terms of who is actually the best. Yes owgr matters for getting into events, but in terms of identifying the best actual golfers data golf may be the only true reliable source.

[RickyBobby_PR]

To the op there is no clear cut second. If we look at strokes gained data there are a number of players ranked high there but not ranked high on owgr. The ones that are in the top 5-10 on owgr are scattered throughout the strokes gained data.

based on number of events played and having less than 2 years Aberg could surpass Scheffler in ranking points if he gets hot and wins an event or two and has a bunch of top 5-10 finishes. Similar to how rahm and some others jumped to first early in their career.

But I would say the leaders to make a run at being at or near the top would be Clark, Cantlay, Morikawa and hovland. Schauffele as a potential as well

[RickyBobby_PR]

16 minutes ago, GolfSpy_APH said:

Counter - none of them really matter now in terms of who is actually the best. Yes owgr matters for getting into events, but in terms of identifying the best actual golfers data golf may be the only true reliable source.

The only thing that matters is owgr because it’s as you mentioned how players get into events. The LIV golfers are playing exhibition golf. They are playing resort courses and have no challenge. They are playing against the same group of players week in and week out. Outside of the talk of the merger and whether liv golf should be allowed into majors or other events these golfers are now irrelevant at the pro level.

DP world Tour and PGA tour are where it’s at. Are the guys like rahm, DeChambeau top level golfers sure, but they chose to play exhibition golf to get paid.

You can’t be compared as a top golfer if you aren’t playing on the main stage.

lots of guys who were good on the dp world tour came to the PGA tour and were mediocre with some having a little success. You can’t compare guys playing 54 hole events in a shotgun start on report courses with guys grinding week in and week out trying to keep their card, trying to qualify for a major, trying to make the FedEx cup playoffs. 
 

if the liv golfers were relevant they would have people flocking to watch them, sponsors looking to throw money a them and tv deals.

Before you mention that tv ratings are done I suggest looking at how well espn+ did this weekend. People have more options to watch golf so tv ratings are not a good metric and never have been especially in sports because of the options to watch like bars, sports bars and restaurants, multi pole people in a home watching on a single tv. Even for tv shows the metric isn’t accurate 

Edited April 17 by RickyBobby_PR

[EJW]

Ludvig Åberg

[Preeway]

There is a cluster of guys clamoring for second place but Scottie is way ahead at #1. If his putter stays hot he could give Tiger a run for his record at the top of the OWGR. Right now it’s clearly Scottie vs. the field.  

[mongo312]

The only thing that can derail Scottie is an injury.  Rory seems the logical king slayer based on experience but can't find consistency.  The other guys chasing him need to make sure he's not living in their head rent free like tiger used to do.

[paul6057]

I don't see anyone getting close to Scottie while he's playing like this, but I think over the course of the next year, Ludvig Aberg will start to separate himself as the next best guy, and when Scottie comes back to the pack after his purple patch, it could be the Swede next.

[TSauer]

2 hours ago, Josh Parker said:

I honestly think Aberg will move up the ranks. He's consistent and the more time he gets on the PGA, I think we will see him start winning more and more. 

I am hoping for this! The guy is just fun to watch. He always seemed to have a smile on his face at the Masters.

[cnosil]

Scottie is possibly a generational type player and currently there isn’t anyone close especially when looking at consistency and play from tee to green.  His putting is a bit better and if it continues to improve there will be possibly more separation.   Looking down the list I think the only player that could pass him is Aberg.  Most of the others are established top OWGR players and really aren’t challenging.   Aberg made some mental mistakes coming down the stretch of the Masters and if he can develop the mental game Scottie has he will be the next number one.

[Oudefart]

Scottie is days away from having first child. That’s who will “overthrow” him, look what happened to Spieth & Fowler most recently. I mean it in only the best of ways, but being a father/family changes the dynamic, it has to.

From all outward signs, he will excel at that too, but I think it leaves the door open for someone younger like Aberg to be able to devote his time to pursuing the goal of #1.

Doesn’t take anything away from Scheffler’s talent.

[birdieboy]

Personally, I trust no one does. Scottie seems to be the perfect model of a PGA pro/competitor... very talented, likable/admirable, no frills, absent of excessive ego, no controversy, seemingly great family man, and appears to have his head screwed on straight. I don't see money a/o celebrity corrupting him. Hopefully, he stays #1 for a long time. 

[RickyBobby_PR]

I know there’s been talk about data golf rankings and them being used instead of owgr. But the ones behind those have said they are flawed and shouldn’t replace the owgr. So owgr is the standard 

[Irish-Assassin]

The question asked is a good question and it’s a hard answer because out of the pack no one is as consistent as Scotty.

So let’s add to the question, would Scotty be number 1 if all the players on the LIV tour still played on the PGA tour?

 

[cnosil]

7 minutes ago, Irish-Assassin said:

So let’s add to the question, would Scotty be number 1 if all the players on the LIV tour still played on the PGA tour?

 

Yes 

[GolfSpy_APH]

10 minutes ago, Irish-Assassin said:

The question asked is a good question and it’s a hard answer because out of the pack no one is as consistent as Scotty.

So let’s add to the question, would Scotty be number 1 if all the players on the LIV tour still played on the PGA tour?

 

For sure. 

Masters was a prime example of his overall dominance.

[GolfSpy MPR]

The short answer: no one is likely to overtake him until he falls back to the pack. The level he's playing at right now is about a once-every-20-years-or-so peak; the odds of another guy on any tour raising his game to the level that Scottie is at at the same time Scottie is there are ridiculously tiny. Consider the gap between Scottie and everyone else in just about every ranking system.

Data Golf:

TUGR:

OWGR:

The first two systems are more interesting to me, and both include golfers from multiple tours. In both of the SG measurements, Scottie is approaching a stroke-per-round advantage over the second-ranked golfer (in both measurements, currently Xander). He is more than a stroke per round better than Rory, in third place.

Scottie is on a heater, for sure. And he's on a heater while still having a glaring liability in his game, with his substandard putting:

All heaters come to an end, and in golf, they seem to be able to come more suddenly and without warning than other sports. But for now: no one is catching Scottie until he cools off.

[Preeway]

34 minutes ago, Irish-Assassin said:

The question asked is a good question and it’s a hard answer because out of the pack no one is as consistent as Scotty.

So let’s add to the question, would Scotty be number 1 if all the players on the LIV tour still played on the PGA tour?

 

Great question. I think he gets pushed a lot harder of if Rahm, Koepka, BD and Cam are still in every field. I think he still comes out on top as he's just that good right now but I think the gap is smaller and he gets more pressure with a few of the bigger names.

[Jim Shaw]

The short answer is yes, it can happen and quickly, 

All of us on this site know how "fickle" this game is, even at the elite level.

A lot and I mean a lot is going to change in the next 6 months for Scottie, there are a lot of questions in my mind how he will handle these life changing events.

For some reason I don't see Merideth chasing Scotty down the driveway with a 4 iron... just saying...

[snoopy79]

5 minutes ago, GolfSpy MPR said:

The short answer: no one is likely to overtake him until he falls back to the pack. The level he's playing at right now is about a once-every-20-years-or-so peak; the odds of another guy on any tour raising his game to the level that Scottie is at at the same time Scottie is there are ridiculously tiny. Consider the gap between Scottie and everyone else in just about every ranking system.

Data Golf:

TUGR:

OWGR:

The first two systems are more interesting to me, and both include golfers from multiple tours. In both of the SG measurements, Scottie is approaching a stroke-per-round advantage over the second-ranked golfer (in both measurements, currently Xander). He is more than a stroke per round better than Rory, in third place.

Scottie is on a heater, for sure. And he's on a heater while still having a glaring liability in his game, with his substandard putting:

All heaters come to an end, and in golf, they seem to be able to come more suddenly and without warning than other sports. But for now: no one is catching Scottie until he cools off.

Great analysis here. My two cents, FWIW, is that Scotty is not going to be overtaken anytime soon. But like you mentioned, he will be the one who falls back if it were to happen. The thing I see as the most admirable about Scotty is that he is consistent, and his course management is top-notch. He doesn't have to be a great putter, he just has to be good enough.

[RickyBobby_PR]

50 minutes ago, Irish-Assassin said:

The question asked is a good question and it’s a hard answer because out of the pack no one is as consistent as Scotty.

So let’s add to the question, would Scotty be number 1 if all the players on the LIV tour still played on the PGA tour?

 

Yes. Just look at the points difference in the owgr rankings. Rahm hasn’t been gone line enough for that type of gap to happen

[Irish-Assassin]

And that’s the thing for me, I hate what LIV the Devils Golf did by offering so much temptation money that players couldn’t resist.
And we are not talking players that couldn’t be in the hunt on the pga tour. 
Right now most on the World rankings in the top twenty either play on LIV not getting points  and rightly so or they are playing like shower heads.

( Hot and Cold )

The chasing pack are not same level anymore, only people that could put up some kind of game are to inconsistent, Rory, Xander, Wyndham, Morikawa and Homa, maybe add Harmon. 
I can see Scotty being numbers one for years, he doesn’t have any real challenge  unless one of those has a coming to Jesus moment or goes to the crossroads and signs on the dotted line. 
 

[NotQuite70s]

13 minutes ago, snoopy79 said:

Great analysis here. My two cents, FWIW, is that Scotty is not going to be overtaken anytime soon. But like you mentioned, he will be the one who falls back if it were to happen. The thing I see as the most admirable about Scotty is that he is consistent, and his course management is top-notch. He doesn't have to be a great putter, he just has to be good enough.

Ben Hogan was apparently so-so at putting.  If you are good enough tee to green (and have Scottie's short game skills) that can get it done.  Since he brought on a putting coach, maybe even that aspect of his game will improve and he can further distance himself from the pack.