Thoughts on Handicap

[FallenSaber]

What are your thoughts on this chart? Do you really feel that as a 5 handicap, you'll only shoot 68 once every 132 years or a 20 handicap will only break 80 once every 1,100 years.  I feel this chart ignores ones ability to improve.

[Maverick803]

Not sure I Feel it’s accurate cause sometimes you get a little hot and truly depends on if you play the same course or not and understand the hazards and what not to do and know how to play the course to the absolute best of your abilities there’s truly a lot of factors that go into it of course but just feel that based off of the numbers presented it don’t seem right  

[Tallwood88]

There are so many variables to consider if this were to be taken at face value. Shot differential would be a better place to start. 

I have a match tomorrow against a 20-handicap player. Any bets that he shoots his best score in 12 years?

 

Follow-up - I won my match 1 up after going 5 down. 

Edited May 15, 2023 by Tallwood88

[pjaxx88]

I can't remember the exact stats but ShotScope published something at the end of last year that broke down the % of golfers likely to break certain numbers and breaking 70 was something like .2% of all worldwide golfers.

[DiscipleofPenick]

1 hour ago, Tallwood88 said:

There are so many variables to consider if this were to be taken at face value. Shot differential would be a better place to start. 

I have a match tomorrow against a 20-handicap player. Any bets that he shoots his best score in 12 years?

I think you got it. And that's what this chart is actually saying. Next time you have a match or tournament with a 20 hcp and he fires a 78. He's either lying about his score or lying about being a 20.

[tdc1]

Remember that handicap is a reflection of a golfer's potential and not the golfer's average score.  A 5-handicap has the potential to shoot five over par approximately once in every four rounds.  If she/he is routinely shooting five over par then they are probably a lower handicap (or, a sandbagger ).

Chris Nickel wrote this article based last year using Grint data: https://mygolfspy.com/news-opinion/golf-performance-by-handicap/

[Albatrossx3]

Total BS,  This certainly does not take into account the rating, length or anything else.  Sure as around a 5 or 6, playing a tour course under tour conditions I probably would never have broken 70, but as a blanket statement BS, I have shot as low as 62, and regularly break 70 during a season.  (my 62 was on a shorter course where I consider my personal par 67)  But over my life have broken 70 from the tips at near 7000 yds , the regular tees and now the senior tees.  

[Kwoodfield]

I think some of these are a little far fetched. I see what they are getting at with the datapoints but I can tell you, I’m at .9 index right now, and I have shot 66-84 this year on the same course nonetheless. I do agree that some of these scores based on handicaps may likely not happen but 132 years? Just say never lol. But they can’t though because it is possible. 

[Hammer_Hunt64]

I'll just speak from personal experience on this one.  It's a fun little chart but has no real bearing because if a 20 handicapper breaks 80 or shoots 82 it can happen out of the blue or be part of a hot streak that would lower their handicap, right?  So when you add in the low scores they are no longer a 20 handicapper, at least for that timeframe.  Garmin says I'm currently a 21.4 (this makes me very sad) but I've never been better than a 16 and I've shot 82 5 different times over the course of the last 10 years and all of them were in a window of about 3 years when I was playing more often and before my shoulder surgery.  So, to go back to the chart, a 15 should shoot 82 once every 3.4 years, I've never been a 15 and blew that out of the water during a few years that, in retrospect, were the best golf of my life.  Still, never got lower than a 16 handicap on any of the tracking apps that I've used over the years, and was probably around a 20 the first time I shot 82, so I guess that was the only one I get at 20 or above, haha.

Rambling thoughts concluded.

Edited May 12, 2023 by Hammer_Hunt64
typo

[mharr]

What is the source of that chart? Someone just making it up?  
 

Lou Stagner, Data Analyst at Arccos (@LouStagnerGolf) publish something similar recently, but it was more detailed, and broken down by percentages, not months/years. I’m guessing someone took his work, applied some low number for number of rounds per year , like maybe 20 or 30 rounds, and inaccurately extrapolated real data to something wholly unbelievable.

I’m a 10 handicap. Shot a 75 last week, a 70 2 months ago, and a 66 (personal best) 2 years ago. But I play 200-220 rounds a year, so the frequency of having a very good round will occur more often in a year, than someone who plays 20 rounds a year.

[Billy-Bo-Jim-Bob]

Math is math.....its just probabilities and I'm certain its directionally correct

[DaveP043]

7 hours ago, FallenSaber said:

What are your thoughts on this chart? Do you really feel that as a 5 handicap, you'll only shoot 68 once every 132 years or a 20 handicap will only break 80 once every 1,100 years.  I feel this chart ignores ones ability to improve.

In order to comment meaningfully, I'd like to read whatever article this chart came from.  There are so many things we don't know.  One thing I think you have right, a player's skill level and scoring isn't static, scores go up and down with the seasons, with injuries, with non-golf demands on the player's time, with instruction and practice.

1 hour ago, Tallwood88 said:

There are so many variables to consider if this were to be taken at face value. Shot differential would be a better place to start. 

I have a match tomorrow against a 20-handicap player. Any bets that he shoots his best score in 12 years?

One thing to remember, as a general rule, the lower-handicapper has a small advantage in every match.  If you (as a 15) go into a match with a 20 thinking you're at a disadvantage, you already ARE at a disadvantage.  

[tony@CIC]

The chart is hogwash. It doesn't take into account a number of variables. For instance the 20 handicapper  could be just starting out and taking lessons  with a disciplined approach to practice it won't take that golfer 12 yrs to shoot an 85. The majority of guys I play with are golfing for fun but are also continually working at lowering their scores, and while they don't have a rapid decrease in the hcp, they do shoot much lower scores (to their hcp) on occasion. 

[dlygrisse]

As someone who was about a 7 at the time, I shot 68 twice, and 69 once. .  All times on a relatively short course par 70 or 71. I’m not a long hitter so my score tends to jump fairly quickly when it gets longer. I play one of these courses often in a 9 hole me s league, my cap is now 10, I often shoot between 38-41, every now and then around par. 

[cnosil]

With the posts discussing course difficulty you are getting into the course index and not overall handicap.   Play an easy course, your index will be lower, pay a hard course you index will be higher.   If you play these courses and score well, your overall handicap will drop.  
 

I think the chart is more relevant to the tournament round where the perineal 20 handicapper comes in and shoots a career round.   This chart isn’t for the player that keeps a legitimate handicap and improves over time.  

[MuniGolfer]

I don’t know that it’s super far off. I am an 8.8 and have broken 80 only twice in the last 2 years. I think you have to consider what others have said, that handicap is your potential when you are playing your best. The reason it feels so wrong is I think most of us overestimate our abilities or are sand baggers. I know I saw the chart at first and thought, “No way that’s right,” but then I went and looked at my score history.

[Admiral Steve]

There are a lot of variables--but none more important than "home game or away game".  I'm an honest 5 index.  No vanity, no sandbag.  Score average about 76, and well over 100 rounds per year.  I will shoot a 72 perhaps every other month--but shoot a few 82's in the same period.  By the chart, should not be able to do that.  That is on my home course, 6,000 yards.  Put me on an unfamiliar course, even at the same yardage, and I will have a hard time breaking 78.  Familiarity with layout, where NOT to hit, greens make a huge difference in ability to score.

[sharkfest]

10 hours ago, FallenSaber said:

What are your thoughts on this chart? Do you really feel that as a 5 handicap, you'll only shoot 68 once every 132 years or a 20 handicap will only break 80 once every 1,100 years.  I feel this chart ignores ones ability to improve.

Im off 27 have scored 78 with winter greens 

And 81  twice. Worked on ball striking and only my driving is preventing me breaking 80.

Handicap will definately go down after lessons this summer

[invee123]

Funny thing is that I've been playing a lot of hard courses lately so I am an 11.4 handicap right now but only shot 11.4 or better on one course (an executive muni course) and have still yet to break 80 on a par-72. So needless to say I either need some really good scores on my ghin or I need to work towards a higher HCP haha

[ezloan1]

I am a 20, but I'm also 73 years old...a 90 every 6 months if this is how the chart works~~It happens, just not sure how often.  I'm now in the business of playing golf for fun, not necessarily for sport, primarily because most of my long term golfing friends are gone.  I choose to play more often on "executive" courses (primarily around 3000 yards).  One suggestion that's REALLY helped me on the regulation courses, was to find those that match my playing ability chart which states I should play those that are under 6000 yards.  I WISH that I had played this way from the start, getting to a 10 hdcp became work and I forgot I was suppose to be having fun, back up at 15 was better.   Age comes quickly everyone, remember this is a game that any fame and glory you may achieve are short lived and mostly goes unnoticed. 

 

[Bonytird]

Whomever did this study needs to go back to school to learn how to do studies. There are many factors that go into how low you can shoot a score based on your hdcp over a number of years. Factors that will influence that outcome are: frequency of play; atmospheric conditions of your location; same course or different courses; condition of golf course; difficulty of course.


Sent from my iPhone using MyGolfSpy

[LWD]

Two words:  aging joints!  I'm older and some days, my shoulder (severely torn labrum 15 years ago) kills me.  When I'm swinging with fluidity, my game is pretty good.  When I'm not, my game suffers.  Sometimes, it suffers a lot.  It's quite possible that I can (and have) occasionally shoot a "career score".  

[frazzman80]

Does the chart mean they play 1 round a day every day? Or does it take into consideration that a 5 likely plays a heck of a lot more often than a 20?

Round frequency matters and I think it is very undefined here. I used to play every day in college and then life happens and I dropped off to once a month if I was lucky. The “best I could shoot” playing 300 rounds a year versus 12 is dramatically different!

So until it’s defined by number of rounds/year, the “years” element here is bogus.

 

Edited May 12, 2023 by frazzman80

[Kenny B]

Too many unknowns for this to be a valid chart to discuss.

[RickyBobby_PR]

5 hours ago, invee123 said:

Funny thing is that I've been playing a lot of hard courses lately so I am an 11.4 handicap right now but only shot 11.4 or better on one course (an executive muni course) and have still yet to break 80 on a par-72. So needless to say I either need some really good scores on my ghin or I need to work towards a higher HCP haha

That’s how handicaps are supposed to work. If you were scoring at 11.4 your handicap would drop. Handicap isn’t your average score it’s what your potential is. Some days you could shoot lower, some on it and others over it. 

5 hours ago, invee123 said:

Funny thing is that I've been playing a lot of hard courses lately so I am an 11.4 handicap right now but only shot 11.4 or better on one course (an executive muni course) and have still yet to break 80 on a par-72. So needless to say I either need some really good scores on my ghin or I need to work towards a higher HCP haha

That’s how handicaps are supposed to work. If you were scoring at 11.4 your handicap would drop. Handicap isn’t your average score it’s what your potential is. Some days you could shoot lower, some on it and others over it. 

5 hours ago, invee123 said:

Funny thing is that I've been playing a lot of hard courses lately so I am an 11.4 handicap right now but only shot 11.4 or better on one course (an executive muni course) and have still yet to break 80 on a par-72. So needless to say I either need some really good scores on my ghin or I need to work towards a higher HCP haha

That’s how handicaps are supposed to work. If you were scoring at 11.4 your handicap would drop. Handicap isn’t your average score it’s what your potential is. Some days you could shoot lower, some on it and others over it. 

[Kenms3762]

I shot a 1 over par round at Laguna Seca golf course in Monterey CA when I was a 15 handicap. That was about 10 years ago. Last year I shot a 2 over par round at Aptos Seascape in Aptos CA as an 11 handicapper.  I didn't necessarily hit the ball a lot better than normal but my short game and putting was uncharacteristically good for the entire round on both of those days. I think that's the ticket to a career low round. 

[gophergutz]

6 hours ago, RickyBobby_PR said:

That’s how handicaps are supposed to work. If you were scoring at 11.4 your handicap would drop. Handicap isn’t your average score it’s what your potential is. Some days you could shoot lower, some on it and others over it. 

That’s how handicaps are supposed to work. If you were scoring at 11.4 your handicap would drop. Handicap isn’t your average score it’s what your potential is. Some days you could shoot lower, some on it and others over it. 

That’s how handicaps are supposed to work. If you were scoring at 11.4 your handicap would drop. Handicap isn’t your average score it’s what your potential is. Some days you could shoot lower, some on it and others over it. 

Keys/mouse sticky ?

[gophergutz]

16 hours ago, tdc1 said:

Remember that handicap is a reflection of a golfer's potential and not the golfer's average score.  A 5-handicap has the potential to shoot five over par approximately once in every four rounds.  If she/he is routinely shooting five over par then they are probably a lower handicap (or, a sandbagger ).

Chris Nickel wrote this article based last year using Grint data: https://mygolfspy.com/news-opinion/golf-performance-by-handicap/

No, it's not "potential", it's "demonstrated ability".

And the 5 'cap you talk about will have an average DIFFERENTIAL of ~ 5 over the COURSE RATING (NOT par), for his best 8 rounds of his last 20.

[gophergutz]

14 hours ago, cnosil said:

With the posts discussing course difficulty you are getting into the course index and not overall handicap.   Play an easy course, your index will be lower, pay a hard course you index will be higher.   If you play these courses and score well, your overall handicap will drop.  
 

I think the chart is more relevant to the tournament round where the perineal 20 handicapper comes in and shoots a career round.   This chart isn’t for the player that keeps a legitimate handicap and improves over time.  

Seems like very few around here, or at least in this thread, have any idea how handicaps work.

The chart was posted in Golf Digest (online) yesterday or the day before. I was going to try to write to either GD or the person who wrote the article. It certainly IS "hogwash" & definitely misleading. It's actually beneath them.

You started out OK with the course "index", even though you meant course rating. Theoretically, it does not matter whether it's an "easy" course or a "difficult" one. Your index is your index no matter where you play. You use your index to get a course/playing handicap from the tee set you're playing that day by using the course rating and slope. From that you get your strokes for that day, and the odds of you hitting your index (differential) that day are somewhere in the 2 or 3 out of 20 range. "72", as mentioned in the chart has nothing to do with anything. Par could be 67 or 74. 72 means nothing.

That chart's derived from the Pope of Slope's Chart, which is 10(?) or so years old but the numbers/odds should be relatively close to the same now.

The USGA used to post this same (P.O.S.) chart in their rule book years ago but dropped it a while ago.

Note the P.O.S. chart is referring to DIFFERENTIALS, not strokes under par and the odds of shooting a differential X stroke better than you current index.

And it's referring to "tournament" rounds, not casual play,,,,,,, but it's still pretty clear what the point is - in a NET game, high cappers have much better odds of shooting a lower net score than lower handicappers. The higher the handicap the "easier" it is to shoot a really low net. 

 

 

 

[Gerak13]

On 5/12/2023 at 7:37 AM, tdc1 said:

Remember that handicap is a reflection of a golfer's potential and not the golfer's average score.  A 5-handicap has the potential to shoot five over par approximately once in every four rounds.  If she/he is routinely shooting five over par then they are probably a lower handicap (or, a sandbagger ).

Chris Nickel wrote this article based last year using Grint data: https://mygolfspy.com/news-opinion/golf-performance-by-handicap/

This is not correct. If you routinely or in other words shoot 5 over par every single round you play, you are a 5 handicap. The best 8 of 20 are the exact same as the other 16 that don't get counted.