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2 hours ago, Rickp said:


That’s a pretty safe prediction and I like all of them. I’m not so sure w Tommy Fleetwood though.

 

Tommy had a nice final round last Sunday on a tough course on the Euro tour, so maybe he has some momentum.  

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Not exactly Nostradamus, there dumbass! Sent from my iPhone using MyGolfSpy

Well, I’ve gained 10 pounds and working on a degree in Biblical studies... pretty much the same. 😂😂

You have no idea how happy this post makes me. There are always two sides to a story. It’s why I don’t root based on so-called character - we can’t know these guys for real unless we happen too. I

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23 hours ago, sixcat said:

The winner will have to have a great all-around game but driving will be critical.  I don't believe the bomb and gougers will be overly successful this week.  I will take Xander Schauffele for the win and Paul Casey for my dark-horse.  Both are coming into the US Open in excellent form.

Excellent picks.  Xander has played well on tough courses, and Casey always seems to hang around the lead more often than not.

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Its gotta be Morikowa right? With his iron play, he may just have enough to win back-to-back majors.

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My question is will Bryson finish in the Top 20? He’s going to hit driver, but hit it in the deep rough and suffer the consequences.

Is the course too long for these bombers to hit driving irons 280 and play from there???

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12 minutes ago, PMookie said:

My question is will Bryson finish in the Top 20? He’s going to hit driver, but hit it in the deep rough and suffer the consequences.

Is the course too long for these bombers to hit driving irons 280 and play from there???

My thought is, if Bryson bombs driver everywhere, he won't be playing the weekend. 

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23 hours ago, Kenny B said:

Interesting pairings:

The ASU group:  Phil, Raum and Casey
The OSU group:  Rickie, Wolff and Hovland

In addition to the Bryson, DJ, and Finau bomber group, the McIlroy, Scott, and Rose group will also be fun to follow.  Adam Scott could do very well here following in the footsteps of another Aussie here... Olgilvy.  

 

EDIT:  They also put the Canadians together, so at least the speak the same language, eh?

I'll be pulling for the SunDevils out there!  Fork 'em Devils!

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My question is will Bryson finish in the Top 20? He’s going to hit driver, but hit it in the deep rough and suffer the consequences.
Is the course too long for these bombers to hit driving irons 280 and play from there???

My thought is, if Bryson bombs driver everywhere, he won't be playing the weekend. 


Length will be an advantage as all players are going to miss fairways. I’d rather be Bryson distance hitting out if the rough than 40 yards back hitting out of the rough. Even if you are too far back and in the fairway you risk being in the long stuff by the green.
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1 hour ago, sixcat said:

My thought is, if Bryson bombs driver everywhere, he won't be playing the weekend. 

His accuracy has been pretty good at some tournaments.  He hit more fairways than DJ did at the PGA.  However, when he gets wild, he hits the ball further off the fairway than most do.  

I'm more concerned about his short game, which seems to suck with the OL clubs.

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Just now, Kenny B said:

His accuracy has been pretty good at some tournaments.  He hit more fairways than DJ did at the PGA.  However, when he gets wild, he hits the ball further off the fairway than most do.  

I'm more concerned about how short game, which seems to suck with the OL clubs.

That's my thought as well, I just failed to elaborate.  Given what Winged Foot is, I believe it would be far more advantageous for Bryson to lay back and have a 6-iron or 7-iron from the fairway rather than wedge from the jungle.  Bryson's wedges aren't very good considering he is a top 10 player in the world.

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56 minutes ago, cnosil said:

Length will be an advantage as all players are going to miss fairways. I’d rather be Bryson distance hitting out if the rough than 40 yards back hitting out of the rough. Even if you are too far back and in the fairway you risk being in the long stuff by the green.

 

 

On virtually every other course in the world, I would agree.  But not at Winged Foot.  (Edit to add) The first few tournaments of the return to golf, Bryson was driving it long and straight.  That hasn't exactly been the case of late.  

But I could be completely wrong.  

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Bryson is fully going to be bombing it around the course. He's a DECADE guy and that's the play even with the rough as thick as it is. He'll be going for the green on 6 every day. His line on 8 is cutting the corner over the trees. Only thing that will change that is unfavorable winds.

The penalty for missing the fairway is going to be severe, but it's going to be more severe the farther back you are. Bryson's driving accuracy was a little more than 57% this past season, which translates to 8 fairways per round. Is pulling 3 wood or iron going to result in more fairways hit? Probably, but it's not going to take 57% to 100%. So it's a question of trade-offs. In 4"+ rough, it takes an average of 0.37 more strokes to hole out from 175-199 yards for tour pros than in the fairway. It'll be more severe at Winged Foot though, but the point is, contrast that to the 0.27 additional strokes needed at 100-124 yards from 4"+ rough.

Where would you rather be if you had to be in the rough? No one's hitting 100% fairways this week. The fairways are too narrow. Then there's the fact that bombers have won the last 4 of these things.

All this to say though, whatever strategy guys want to use this week, they're going to have to play seriously good golf if they want to win. And seriously good golf on a course like this is going to be about limiting the big scores. Bogey is likely going to be a good score on a lot of holes. It's avoiding the doubles and triples that's going to be key and scraping out as many pars as possible. Hopefully the odd birdie will drop too. It's going to take a well rounded game to achieve that, regardless of strategy.

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I just watched Andy Johnson's (The Fried Egg / The Shotgun Start) Winged Foot flyover on Youtube.  The video has commentary from Geoff Ogivly and Gill Hanse.  At the very end of the video, Ogilvy says "That's exemplified more than almost anywhere at Winged Foot.  You have to be really, really good inside 100 yards!"

I don't believe that describes Bryson in any way, shape or form!  But that's my opinion.

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21 minutes ago, sixcat said:

I just watched Andy Johnson's (The Fried Egg / The Shotgun Start) Winged Foot flyover on Youtube.  The video has commentary from Geoff Ogivly and Gill Hanse.  At the very end of the video, Ogilvy says "That's exemplified more than almost anywhere at Winged Foot.  You have to be really, really good inside 100 yards!"

I don't believe that describes Bryson in any way, shape or form!  But that's my opinion.

They're commentary continues to be proven wrong by math, however that is a different discussion. 

By a quick glance there are 2 maybe 3 that par 4's that will result in a approach shot close to 100 yards. So are they saying that people punching out and getting up and down from 100 yards is the key? My guess is the winner does that 4 times in tourney. The guy that wins is not going to be hacking out of the rough a lot. 

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41 minutes ago, sixcat said:

I just watched Andy Johnson's (The Fried Egg / The Shotgun Start) Winged Foot flyover on Youtube.  The video has commentary from Geoff Ogivly and Gill Hanse.  At the very end of the video, Ogilvy says "That's exemplified more than almost anywhere at Winged Foot.  You have to be really, really good inside 100 yards!"

I don't believe that describes Bryson in any way, shape or form!  But that's my opinion.

16 minutes ago, THEZIPR23 said:

They're commentary continues to be proven wrong by math, however that is a different discussion. 

By a quick glance there are 2 maybe 3 that par 4's that will result in a approach shot close to 100 yards. So are they saying that people punching out and getting up and down from 100 yards is the key? My guess is the winner does that 4 times in tourney. The guy that wins is not going to be hacking out of the rough a lot. 

I question Ogilvy's statement there. Bryson's driving average for 2020 was 322 yards. Applying that number to the anticipated yardages for Winged Foot this week gives him 2 guaranteed holes with under 100 yard second shots, one being the driveable, for him at least, 6th hole and the other being the 11th hole which is the only other par 4 under 400 yards. The 15th hole is a 104 yard approach based on a 322 yard drive. This how his second shots would look by yardage based solely on him hitting a 322 yard drive every hole. The over 200 yard approaches are on the par 5s. One is reachable at a 243 yard approach. The other is not with a 311 yard second shot so an inside 100 yard third shot is likely, but that only gives him 3 guaranteed approach shots inside 100 yards.

< 100 2
100-125 1
125-150 4
150-175 2
175-200 3
> 200 2

Now Bryson will likely bomb a few drives well beyond 322 so I think 3-4 approach shots under 100 yards is more likely, but still, that's not a lot to really say with any degree of confidence that you have to be really, really good inside 100 yards on this golf course. Maybe inside 30 or even 50 yards is a more accurate statement. But just based on some quick glance math, there's not much stock to be found in Ogilvy's statement.

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14 minutes ago, THEZIPR23 said:

They're commentary continues to be proven wrong by math, however that is a different discussion. 

I don't think Geoff Ogilvy is wrong about much when it comes to golf course set-up and playability.  But like you said, that's a different discussion.

How about today's commentary from Max Homa.  Max said on his podcast, guys like Bryson are going to be at a huge disadvantage because the spotters aren't going to be far enough up the fairway to see where his balls land.  

Looking forward to seeing what happens, regardless.  I just don't think Bryson's strategy will be successful for him this week.

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23 minutes ago, sixcat said:

I don't think Geoff Ogilvy is wrong about much when it comes to golf course set-up and playability.  But like you said, that's a different discussion.

How about today's commentary from Max Homa.  Max said on his podcast, guys like Bryson are going to be at a huge disadvantage because the spotters aren't going to be far enough up the fairway to see where his balls land.  

Looking forward to seeing what happens, regardless.  I just don't think Bryson's strategy will be successful for him this week.

Not much you can do about a spotter not being there. I wonder how many balls will get lost because of no fans. 

I agree that Bryson won't win this week, but my point is that it won't be the strategy that derails him.  

 

 

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8 hours ago, FrogginBullfish said:

Here's an interesting look at driving accuracy from the last time the US Open was at Winged Foot.
 

 


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As pointed out by the guys on The Shotgun Start, No Laying Up, and Geoff Ogilvy, this isn't an accurate representation of fairways missed.  Winged Foot in 2006 was the first time the USGA implemented graduated rough.  Missing a fairway in the first cut isn't quite the same thing as being in the deepest rough along the tree-line.  Missing big was a better option than being in the rough inside the tree-line.  Although, I think bouncing your final drive off the hospitality tent is a bold strategy. 

Collin Montgomerie stated on Live From the other night, he must have hit the first cut two dozen times that week, which would dramatically improve his 57.1%.  Ian Poulter said something very similar earlier in the week about missing very wide being a much better option than being in the deepest rough.

The USGA only graduated the rough on four holes this year and without fans on property to trample areas down, I suspect that graphic will look very different in 2020!

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Alright boys and girls.  I am actually pumped about this tournament, not sure why... but I woke up this morning ready to enjoy a US Open.

At just shy of 7500 yards, I expect it to be a beat down on the players.  Still standing strong with an Australian hoisting the cup if Philly doesn’t get it done... oh and if the guy that wears red on Sunday happens to win, that is a bonus too.

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